So who will be right????
Ye Old Farmer's Almanac says:
Canada's Frigid Forecast: 2010 Winter Weather
After a late start to summer, and a soggy one in many areas, the new, hot of the presses, 2010 Canadian Farmers’ Almanac is here, and within its pages is a prediction for an “Ice Cold Sandwich” winter.
Last year, the 2009 Canadian Farmers’ Almanac predicted an exceptionally long, cold winter for most regions. As promised, bitter cold and heavy snow punished much of the nation, coming on early in the season and lingering through the start of spring. When spring finally did arrive, it came bearing heavy rains, with twice the annual average falling in many regions.
2010 How Cold Will this Winter Be?
The latest edition of the Canadian Farmers’ Almanac warns that this winter’s frigid forecast offers no respite in sight, especially for provinces in the center of the country. “Colder than normal” and “bitterly cold and dry” is how the Canadian Farmers’ Almanac describes the winter in for provinces above the Great Lakes, the Plains, and the Canadian Rockies, while temperatures on the East and West Coasts will be more in line with average to normal winter conditions.
For residents of the East Coast, who bore most of the brunt of last winter’s fury, this may be good news, but the prediction of an “ice cold sandwich” is sure to send chills down the spines of those in Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
While parts of the country are expected to see near or below average precipitation this winter, significant snowfalls are forecast for parts of every zone. Residents of Eastern and Western coastal provinces can expect some a major snowfall in mid-February, with possible blizzard conditions in parts of Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island.
Shovelry is most certainly not dead.
El Nino to deliver forgiving Canadian winter: Expert
By Bradley Bouzane, Canwest News ServiceSeptember 1, 2009
Winter — still a couple of months away — is likely the furthest thing from most people's minds, but Canada's weather guru says the odds are in Canada's favour this year for those who hate to bundle up.
Despite the Farmer's Almanac calling for a harsh, frigid winter for much of the United States, Dave Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, said another El Nino weather event will give Canadians a better chance to enjoy a milder 2009-10 winter.
"(The Farmer's Almanac) looks at moon phases and tea leaves and all that stuff; we put a little bit of science into it," Phillips said Wednesday. "We're not necessarily a lot more accurate than they are, but we think there are things you can look at to give you a clue of how the winter will be.
"Unlike the Farmer's Almanac — if they're calling for a more brutal, old fashioned winter — our models are suggesting it might not be that way."
El Nino is a warm Pacific Ocean current that occurs every three to five years. The current tends to disrupt typical weather patterns in North America.
There have been 17 El Nino "episodes" since 1950, with most of those years resulting in milder than normal conditions for many regions of Canada.
Although conditions vary from coast to coast, the warm Pacific air of El Nino tends to deliver more pleasant temperatures.
"When you look back over those (El Nino) winters, the vast majority of them, for many parts of Canada, were warmer than normal," Phillips said. "In Calgary, for example, in those 17 winters, 13 were warmer and just four were colder. There's no guarantee ever with weather, but I'd go to the bank with those odds."
As you head east, however, those odds decrease significantly.
In Ottawa, nine El Nino winters were warmer and eight were colder. Phillips said those coin-flip odds aren't worth betting the farm on.
One of the more significant El Nino years in Canada was in 1997-98, which recorded the fourth warmest Canadian winter in the last six decades. More recently, however, in 2006-07, El Nino brought Canada, on average, its third mildest winter over the same period.
Phillips said some regions may have to deal with other, more devastating weather events as a result of the same warm-air system, but for the most part, Canadians won't be complaining.
"Some areas get droughts, some gets floods, but in Canada, we tend to be the beneficiary (temperature wise)," said Phillips. "The dice are loaded to give you a warmer than normal winter when you have El Nino event occurring."
Phillips said El Nino "began in earnest in July" and will likely stick around until next spring, but added that, on average, Canadians often don't feel its effects until winter.
"I think the best money is not (put on) what the Farmer's Almanac says," Phillips said. "But it's not like there won't be jacket weather."
Meanwhile meteorologists in the States are starting to post their predictions and they do believe the El Nino will be strong this winter so that means a warm and dry winter for us in the prairies (Central Alberta really doesn't need that).