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This one popped up quite quickly! It was just a tropical depression yesterday. It is going to hit Nicaragua and Honduras, and will weaken to a tropical depression while it is over land, but then is expected to head north into the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen again. Keep an eye on it!!
IDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER BACK OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING AFTER THAT TIME. UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER IDA EMERGES OVER WATER. THERE REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST...SINCE IDA MAY NOT SURVIVE ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/05. IDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOUR OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK MODELS MOVE IDA IN A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF...AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES CAUSED BY EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.
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