Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST Thursday 10 December 2009
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy, not including Darwin.
At 3:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 170 kilometres north northeast of Goulburn Island and 420 kilometres northeast of Darwin and moving west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Saturday.
Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near... 10.2 degrees South 134.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy... within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement... towards the west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category... below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure... 1002 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Thursday 10 December.
Not the first system to develop in the southern hemisphere, there have been 3 already, the first became a Category 5. This is the first in our area. Of course it's only a tropical low at this stage and could fizzle anyway, or by-pass us. But lower convergence is fairly good, upper divergence is also fairly good, and Sea Surface Temperatures are high, between just over 31C to just over 33C (about 88F to 92F).
They've given it 2 days to become a cyclone, Saturday our time. If it does it'll be christened Tropical Cyclone Lawrence.
It's by-passed us now, but as with all these things it's become someone else's problem. Never quite developed into a cyclone over us. Weather Bureau said they were about to declared it, then it moved over land. Brought a lot of rain and strong winds. Only damage was from falling trees, mostly power outages. Luckily I was a bit further from the centre and got a bit less rain, but a lot less wind.
It took off over the sea again and developed into TC Lawrence. Funnily, it did a loop just out from the coast, then continued to head west. It's expected to make landfall tomorrow night in a remote part of Western Australia as a category 2.
Wow that's crazy! No one ever knows where these things are going to end up. I'm glad you weren't in the heat of it, but feel bad for those who were, power outages are horrible, especially if they last for days.
Lawrence has a mind of its own. Instead of hitting the coast where expected it kept further out and ramped up to a category 5. Then it crossed the coast and is well inland but still a category 2. By tomorrow (Friday) it's expected to have degenerated into a tropical low. Saturday should see it moving out to sea again and building up into a cyclone again. I thought conditions were too good for it to only get to category 2. We're still on the periphery of the rain bands and getting light rain out of it. You're right about that crissyr, with all the latest technology to track them, they still don't always do what they're expected to.
The 'saga of Lawrence' isn't over yet. It moved back out across the coast and once out to sea developed into a category 5 again. It came ashore again near Wallal with winds up to 280 KPH and torrential rain. It was so powerful that about 600 KMS inland it was still a category 1 and causing floods. Now degenerated into a low pressure system it's continuing across the continent bring flooding as it goes. This should help the drought stricken areas it's heading for. But heavy rain isn't necessarily helpful if it comes in a short massive burst.