After the last couple of flops it looks like there might be another cyclone around very soon. Our monsoon weakened and we had a bit of respite from the rain. Now it's come back again. I'm now 66% above my January average rainfall with still a week and a half to go.
The low pressure system that's intensifying is to our west and most likely to miss us. It's expected to become a cyclone in the early hours of tomorrow (only a few hours away) and intensify very rapidly to category 3. Most likely heading south east with an off chance of going directly east (to us). Either way looks like it going to be very wet again.
The image is the weather bureau's prediction for Thursday (tomorrow). My place is roughly where the dashed line crosses the coast.
I am so far behind you in time, I hope that you didn't have any problem with that low pressure system becoming a cyclone...which piece of the dashed line crossing the coast are you? The one to the West or to the East?
What an enormous amount of extra rain you have had - I wonder how your pond is doing?
Jenn, I'm to the west. Magda was born early hours of this morning and continues to track south east. They're now expecting it turn to the south west before reaching the coast, but still holding out a possibility of turning east.
To make it even more interesting, Neville was also born early hours of this morning, off the north east coast. But he's in an area of high shear so probably won't last long.
Gosh, both sides! I hope they give you wide berth and fall apart. There are enough natural disasters going on in the world at present. Is your home cyclone prepared with shutters, etc? Fingers X'ed for you!
Since this chart was put out Neville has sheared but is expected to re-intensify tomorrow or over the weekend. No indication of where's he's going, he's too far south to make it back up here. (this system originally came from here).
Magda has continued to intensify under very favourable conditions. Expected to become a category 3 tonight. Currently moving south south east and has moved further south than we are. Makes it extremely unlikely she'd reach us before hitting land even if motion changed to east. It's the monsoons that are trying to drive her east following the trough line, but at worst landfall would be south of us anyway (not so good for Wadeye down that way). She's now expected to get to category 4 before making landfall.
Zig,...YIKES!!! We played 'watching and dodging cyclones' the s. pacific and don't envy the situation. You will still get alot of rain, won't you? Looks like a nice high off to the S...someone will get some nice weather or will the cat.4 cyclone change that? Hate tthose isobars in the S. Ocean!!
Carol, isobars below either hit South Island NZ, or next stop is Argentina. Otherwise they're well out of the way of anything. Magda has dragged the monsoon trough well to our south so it's more likely we'll have isolated storms for a while. You can get a sudden 50mm deluge of rain just down the road and nothing here, or vice versa. It's the luck of where the storm passes. To date I've had 72% above my average January rainfall. Only about a week to go.
Down south they've got the other problem, temperatures in excess of 40C. They'll be hoping for the remains of Magda to come through with a lot of rain to put out the fires.
This year I put in a weather station and it's interesting to see the difference between mine and the closest official one which is only about 5 kms away. It's confirmed that it's windier there than here, which probably explains why the humidity is higher here. I've only ever collected rain data here before but now it'll be interesting to see all the rest.
Just an update, Magda has passed into history. Neville never stood a chance, Olga is now closing in on him from the east (Olga developed during last night). Neville's expected to be absorbed into Olga shortly. Olga is due to hit the coast late tomorrow night, somewhere between Cairns and Port Douglas.
With Magda disappeared off into the south west, and Olga/Neville well to the south east, all the moisture has been sucked away from us. Getting more sun and less rain now. I'm 74% above my January average, probably won't get much higher between now and the end of the month. It's now still 110 millimetres (4.3 inches) below my highest monthly total.
I spoke too soon on Olga. She's swallowed up Neville, not even spat the bones out. She'll shortly be crossing the coast but near or right over Cooktown, further north than earlier anticipated.
This shift northwards now allows Olga to cross Cape York Peninsula and move into the Gulf of Carpentaria by Monday/Tuesday. The waters there are very warm and Olga will re-intensify. If she keeps tracking northwards then she'll end up in our backyard.
I can't imagine her tracking far enough northwards to actually hit us, but then again, previously I said Neville (now munched up by Olga) was too far south to come anywhere near here. Still, it's too much of an outside chance. And we have reasonable vertical wind shear in this area at the moment. Unless that changes she won't get through. More likely, she might hit Borroloola and we could end up with flooding. (So what's new? We've been under flood warnings since December.)
Latest situation with Olga, she 's staying inland moving northwest, parallel to the coast. There's still a cyclone watch out in case she moves off the coast again and re-intensifies. Somehow seems determined to come up here. Haven't had a chance to check to weather data to see why she persisting in creeping equator-wards rather than towards the south pole.
That could be it Carol, making her way back to Moscow. The current track map is a bit strange. It has her continuing to track parallel to and just in from the coast. Then tomorrow night has her re-intensifying into a category 1, still over land. Later on she's expected to curve up to the north which will put her out over water again. Longer term she's expected to move back eastwards. She's a lady who doesn't seem to be able to make up her mind.
Olga is still 'equivocating' more than making any definite moves. Although having reached the intensity of a cyclone again, the weather bureau doesn't classify it as more than "ex-tropical cyclone" because it's still over land. They did this with Laurence when it first moved over us last December. They were about to declare it a tropical cyclone when it edged over us (land) so they held off. Later it moved back out to sea and ended up becoming a category 5.
They still expect Olga to be pushed northwards and then eastwards, although she's still moving northwest. There's a ridge to the south pushing her west, but a trough moving in from the west forcing her east. At the moment the ridge is winning. Vertical wind shear is dropping rapidly now so the Old Girl (she's been around a long time for a cyclone) could get a lot more life into her.
Meantime we're getting severe storms coming through with the outer cloud bands. When I get home tomorrow night I'll find out how my rain total for January is coming along. Was 74% above average last weekend, got a good chance of reaching 100% by end of this weekend.
The satellite image is from the JTWC in Hawaii and shows with a red "x" the centre position of Olga. I've added the yellow arrow to make it easier to find. The big cloud mass in the top left is comprised of the severe storms that came through last night. The satellite picture is 3:00am this morning our time (17:30Z yesterday).
Well, the "Fat Lady" is now singing, Olga is crossing the coast at this moment and will soon be carrying her legacy inland.
Yesterday, after much procrastination, she moved out into the Gulf of Carpentaria and rapidly intensified. The JTWC in Hawaii got "egg on its face". They had written her off and issued satellite fixes showing her moving well inland. In fact that was when she was moving out to sea. This was surprising because you could see her position on the weather radar.
She couldn't manage ro move further out (northwards) and hit Mornington Island during the night. But now she's on the coast between Normanton and Burketown, then swinging southwards on a path through the drought stricken areas. Hopefully she'll be carrying a lot of rain with her. Cyclones are nature's way of distributing humidity/rain into the temperate regions.
When we sailed we followed the weather closely (the sailors' joke is that the 2 favorite conversations are marine toilets and weather!!!! Really can be squirrely. Marine toilets are mind defying!
When we were in Brisbane that same phenom happened - or one similar - and the Outback had great rain...after the wet we drove across to Darwin...got as far as Mt. Iza. The dessert was in bloom...gosh it was gorgeous!!!!
I always wondered why they called them "heads". You can imagine, on boats, they're a pretty important item, and functional efficiency is very desirable.
I mentioned on a couple of other threads, my months rainfall is 101.5% above my January average. There's still this afternoon's and night's rain to go. But as Olga departs the scene the weather will stabilise for a while, I think. Nothing seems to be developing at the moment.