Hurricane Ivan (Hope not Ivan the Terrible)

Mount Hermon, LA(Zone 8b)

Hello!

I got tired of clicking on a bunch of different Web sites to get the information I wanted, so I put together a weather page for quick reference when I want to check on the current storms. It isn't much, but it may be helpful to others.

http://members.aol.com/_ht_a/Minnyminew/weather_hurricanes_2004_ivan.htm

If anyone has any suggestions for improvements or inclusions of other kinds of data that would be useful, please let me know. Thanks!

And I hope we will all be safe from Ivan.

Jean

Edited to correct the link to go directly to the "Ivan" page.

This message was edited Sep 13, 2004 6:45 AM

Gordonville, TX(Zone 7b)

Lookf good Jean. I can see Ivan and Frances clearly. Thanks. You are way too cool, girl!

Brewers, KY(Zone 6b)

jean, that is one awesome website! Thanks, looks like I'll be tuned into it over the week...

Golden, CO(Zone 5b)

According to the AP, Grenada took a direct hit from Ivan which strengthened to a Cat 4 again while over Grenada. It leveled concrete block buildings and is headed to Jamaica.

Norco, LA(Zone 9a)

If it continues on its predicted path it'll be in Navarre Beach, FL, next Tuesday.

Gordonville, TX(Zone 7b)

Looks to me like South America will feel some of the effects of this bad boy, as well.

Frederick, MD(Zone 6a)

Just had a phonecall from an employee and his wife who are in Negril, Jamaica. They are trying to get a flight out this afternoon. The hotel they are staying in is not saying a word to anyone about the impending Ivan :(

Gordonville, TX(Zone 7b)

JERKS!!!

Golden, CO(Zone 5b)

Hotel doesn't want a mass exodus.

It's funny. I spent twenty years as a travel agent. Selling travel insurance to someone who was going on a cruise was easy. Selling travel insurance to someone who bought a package to Disney was almost impossible. Why? I never understood it. The ships can reroute and get away from a hurricane. Might not get the ports of call you thought, but you will still have a lovely trip. Disney closes for weather for several days, Orlando can't go anywhere!

Oh the joys of human nature.

Moose Jaw, SK(Zone 3b)

Just looked at Ivan's forecasted track again....sure feel sorry for all who have had Frances and Charlie and I really hope Ivan dies in it's track and that all are ready to bug out if nothing slows that one down!!!!!!!!!

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Lilypon, I think you are right to be concerned about Ivan and our friends in Florida... plus Louisiana, as it could also be a target.

I, too, hope Ivan dies a quick death... another hit on Florida so soon would be more than most of those people can bear.

Bay City, MI(Zone 6a)

hurricane season really STINKZ!

praying for everyone!!

Panhandle, FL(Zone 8a)

Am keeping one eye on Ivan!

Moose Jaw, SK(Zone 3b)

I'm glad to hear that weeds!!! I keep peeking at work and check it when I get up and before I go to bed.......if I'm doing that here Floridians and Lousianians must be glued to it!

Panhandle, FL(Zone 8a)

Not really, too far away yet...can get really stressed if I focus on it too soon....will just wait and see where it goes.

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

I think that lone "Sinner" in FL needs to fess up so God leaves FL alone, LOL.

(Have to find some humour somewhere about all this weather... please do not ANYONE take my comment seriously.)

edited for spelling

This message was edited Sep 8, 2004 10:39 PM

Panhandle, FL(Zone 8a)

I think that person prolly works near me! LOL Darius....it was funny!

Gordonville, TX(Zone 7b)

Time to get out of Dodge, Frances! Take Ivan with you! Git!

Moose Jaw, SK(Zone 3b)

Thurs. Sept 9th's 2:00 am bulletin:

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 160 MPH...255
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN A RARE CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY.

Mount Hermon, LA(Zone 8b)

I have a room booked, a bag packed, and the cat carriers ready to go. Just in case.

The projected path, based upon computer models which are fairly unreliable, will change a bazillion times more in the next few days, but the meteorologists might have more of a handle on Ivan by Friday evening.

I sure don't look forward to evacuating again, but will do so at a moment's notice, if necessary (and I DON'T wait for "officials" to tell me that it is time to leave -- I have eyes too).

But if a slow-moving Category 3 or Cat 4 or 5 were to make a direct hit on New Orleans, this below-sea-level, bowl-shaped city would be inundated with 20 to 30 feet of standing water from a very large, nearby lake. There isn't anyplace around here that's 30 feet high! Talk about a flat-lander!

We'll see what develops....

Frederick, MD(Zone 6a)

latest 5-day track :(

Thumbnail by Dea
So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

I know the folks in the FL Keys aren't happy that mandatory evacuation started this morning for ALL tourists, and this evening for folks in mobile homes... but maybe it will save a bunch of lives.

Dea, I couldn't open the photo of the track you posted, so I'm posting it again. Here's what the Forecasters have to say about the projected track:

Quoting:
SURVEILLANCE FLIGHTS AROUND IVAN HAS RESULTED IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODELS THROUGH 60 HOURS...ON IVAN MOVING OVER OR AT LEAST VERY NEAR JAMAICA IN 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IS MUCH LESS THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 2-3 DAYS.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODEL SPREAD STILL BRACKETS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS AGAIN REMAINS IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE DEVELOPMENT AND FUTURE TRACK OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 34N 48W. WATER VAPOR WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LOW IS STRONGER THAN ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING.

HOWEVER...THE MODEL THAT INITIALIZED THE LOW THE BEST AT 00Z WAS NOGAPS. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...ALONG WITH THE ECMWF MODEL...ON BRINGING IVAN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL CUBA AND THEN OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UKMET MODEL REMAINS THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER...WHILE THE GFS IS STILL THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING THEIR TRACKS TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN NOW TAKES IVAN ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA IN 96-120 HOURS.

GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AT 96- AND 120-HR.

Thumbnail by darius
So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

I STILL think that lone "Sinner" in FL needs to fess up so God leaves FL alone, LOL.

(Have to find some humour somewhere about all this weather... please do not ANYONE take my comment seriously.)

Gordonville, TX(Zone 7b)

Sounds like you have your 'ducks in a row' Sweet Pea and, a good head on your shoulders!

Surry, VA(Zone 7b)

My local news said that the current track has about 60% accuracy at this point since it is still a few days away.

LouisianaSweetPea, I agree with imway2dumb that you are smart to be prepared should anything change.

Darius, I take it that they are having the tourists leave because it is only 2 lanes in and out if you are driving?

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Carol, yes, I think that's the reasoning. They say it will take 36 hours to evacuate, and that's BEFORE residents in homes other than mobile.

Gads, what another mess coming.

Gordonville, TX(Zone 7b)

Ivan is behaving "terribly" even now! I wish we had a member from Cuba. Do we?

Gordonville, TX(Zone 7b)

Ivan has destroyed 90% of the homes in Granada! He is in fact "Ivan the Terrible." This storm is awfull!!

New Iberia, LA(Zone 9a)

Yes, I told Dh that We better start pack and get ready in case if it come to LA. Need to go groceries and buy some canned foods in case so we dont have to worry about it later..

Gordonville, TX(Zone 7b)

Water for drinking too. Fill your bath tub for washing up later.

Moose Jaw, SK(Zone 3b)

Something for Pati to think about........stubborn woman!

EVACUATE !!!

Winds 111 to 130 mph and/or a storm surge nine to 12 feet above normal. Structural damage to residences and utility buildings. Mobile homes frequently are destroyed. Flooding near the coast destroys small structures and larger structures are damaged by floating debris. Terrain lower than five feet above sea level is flooded eight or more miles inland.

To me, that would mean, "It is probably a really good idea to START EVACUATION PROCEDURES IMMEDIATELY."

I HOPE YOU LEFT !!!

Winds 131 to 155 mph and/or a storm surge 13 to 18 feet above normal. Extensive outside wall failure with complete roof failure on small residences. Major erosions of beaches and major damage to the lower floors of buildings near the shore. Terrain continuously lower than 10 feet above sea level may be flooded and evacuation of residential areas may be required.

In my opinion, that means, "GET THE HE$$ OUT OF THERE! NOW! It's a LOT worse than that picture."

Quoting:
IT WAS NICE KNOWING YOU....

Winds greater than 155 mph and/or a storm surge greater than 18 feet above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and buildings and complete destruction of small utility buildings can be expected. Major damage likely to lower floors of structures.

"I HOPE YOU'VE ALREADY LEFT BECAUSE, IF NOT, YOU'RE IN BAD SHAPE" (and if you choose to stay, pin a name/address tag on yourself so that your body can be identified).





Golden, CO(Zone 5b)

I know I read somewhere that even concrete block structures were seriously damaged in Grenada. But would someone explain why they think this thing is going to turn north? So far it has been primarily west. An uneducated person (me) would be inclined to think Central America is in trouble more than Florida and Louisiana. Is there something else that will influence it's direction?

Moab, UT(Zone 6b)

I'm wondering same thing, is there a strong high over the G of M keeping it from moving westward? 'Caines do cross directly across the Gulf and right on across Mexico. Howcum the right hand turn?

Moose Jaw, SK(Zone 3b)

Here is a link that may help answer your questions: http://www.usatoday.com/weather/huricane/science/weddyhur.htm

Mount Hermon, LA(Zone 8b)

It has to do with developing ridges and troughs over the Atlantic and central United States. These factors will help "steer" Ivan when he starts slowing down.

Large, powerful, fast-moving storms tend to defy steering currents and make their own weather, so Ivan has to slow down to be affected by them. But there are factors in play that will also help to slow him, probably after he crosses Jamaiaca.

Moose Jaw, SK(Zone 3b)

and: http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wopal.htm

Gordonville, TX(Zone 7b)

Right now the projected track is similar to Charlie. Across Cuba and into the gulf.

Golden, CO(Zone 5b)

Thanks lilypon, I learn so much on DG!

Gordonville, TX(Zone 7b)

Sustained winds of 160 mph! Headed toward Jamaica.

Moab, UT(Zone 6b)

Mini - you just make the lists, no lifting water or groceries. This is no joke - even if its glue not stitches yoou had a long slice put in you. Talk about stubborn people.

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