I got tired of clicking on a bunch of different Web sites to get the information I wanted, so I put together a weather page for quick reference when I want to check on the current storms. It isn't much, but it may be helpful to others.
Just had a phonecall from an employee and his wife who are in Negril, Jamaica. They are trying to get a flight out this afternoon. The hotel they are staying in is not saying a word to anyone about the impending Ivan :(
It's funny. I spent twenty years as a travel agent. Selling travel insurance to someone who was going on a cruise was easy. Selling travel insurance to someone who bought a package to Disney was almost impossible. Why? I never understood it. The ships can reroute and get away from a hurricane. Might not get the ports of call you thought, but you will still have a lovely trip. Disney closes for weather for several days, Orlando can't go anywhere!
Just looked at Ivan's forecasted track again...sure feel sorry for all who have had Frances and Charlie and I really hope Ivan dies in it's track and that all are ready to bug out if nothing slows that one down!!!!!!!!!
RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 160 MPH...255
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN A RARE CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY.
I have a room booked, a bag packed, and the cat carriers ready to go. Just in case.
The projected path, based upon computer models which are fairly unreliable, will change a bazillion times more in the next few days, but the meteorologists might have more of a handle on Ivan by Friday evening.
I sure don't look forward to evacuating again, but will do so at a moment's notice, if necessary (and I DON'T wait for "officials" to tell me that it is time to leave -- I have eyes too).
But if a slow-moving Category 3 or Cat 4 or 5 were to make a direct hit on New Orleans, this below-sea-level, bowl-shaped city would be inundated with 20 to 30 feet of standing water from a very large, nearby lake. There isn't anyplace around here that's 30 feet high! Talk about a flat-lander!
I know the folks in the FL Keys aren't happy that mandatory evacuation started this morning for ALL tourists, and this evening for folks in mobile homes... but maybe it will save a bunch of lives.
Dea, I couldn't open the photo of the track you posted, so I'm posting it again. Here's what the Forecasters have to say about the projected track:
[quote] SURVEILLANCE FLIGHTS AROUND IVAN HAS RESULTED IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODELS THROUGH 60 HOURS...ON IVAN MOVING OVER OR AT LEAST VERY NEAR JAMAICA IN 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IS MUCH LESS THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 2-3 DAYS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODEL SPREAD STILL BRACKETS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS AGAIN REMAINS IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE DEVELOPMENT AND FUTURE TRACK OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 34N 48W. WATER VAPOR WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LOW IS STRONGER THAN ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL THAT INITIALIZED THE LOW THE BEST AT 00Z WAS NOGAPS. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...ALONG WITH THE ECMWF MODEL...ON BRINGING IVAN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL CUBA AND THEN OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UKMET MODEL REMAINS THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER...WHILE THE GFS IS STILL THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING THEIR TRACKS TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN NOW TAKES IVAN ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA IN 96-120 HOURS.
GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AT 96- AND 120-HR.
Something for Pati to think about...stubborn woman!
Winds 111 to 130 mph and/or a storm surge nine to 12 feet above normal. Structural damage to residences and utility buildings. Mobile homes frequently are destroyed. Flooding near the coast destroys small structures and larger structures are damaged by floating debris. Terrain lower than five feet above sea level is flooded eight or more miles inland.
To me, that would mean, "It is probably a really good idea to START EVACUATION PROCEDURES IMMEDIATELY."
I HOPE YOU LEFT !!!
Winds 131 to 155 mph and/or a storm surge 13 to 18 feet above normal. Extensive outside wall failure with complete roof failure on small residences. Major erosions of beaches and major damage to the lower floors of buildings near the shore. Terrain continuously lower than 10 feet above sea level may be flooded and evacuation of residential areas may be required.
In my opinion, that means, "GET THE HE$$ OUT OF THERE! NOW! It's a LOT worse than that picture."
[quote]IT WAS NICE KNOWING YOU...
Winds greater than 155 mph and/or a storm surge greater than 18 feet above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and buildings and complete destruction of small utility buildings can be expected. Major damage likely to lower floors of structures.
"I HOPE YOU'VE ALREADY LEFT BECAUSE, IF NOT, YOU'RE IN BAD SHAPE" (and if you choose to stay, pin a name/address tag on yourself so that your body can be identified). [/quote]
I know I read somewhere that even concrete block structures were seriously damaged in Grenada. But would someone explain why they think this thing is going to turn north? So far it has been primarily west. An uneducated person (me) would be inclined to think Central America is in trouble more than Florida and Louisiana. Is there something else that will influence it's direction?
It has to do with developing ridges and troughs over the Atlantic and central United States. These factors will help "steer" Ivan when he starts slowing down.
Large, powerful, fast-moving storms tend to defy steering currents and make their own weather, so Ivan has to slow down to be affected by them. But there are factors in play that will also help to slow him, probably after he crosses Jamaiaca.
I can't believe this is happening again either!!! We got electric back around 4:30 this afternoon when a crew from Georgia came by and replaced a part on each of two transformers. It took all of 20 minuters! Grrr They tell us that they hope to get tree trimmers in before we get more high winds or we will surely lose our power again. My DH has been asking for the power company to take care of those trees for 2 years...
The thing that bothers me most is that if we have high winds across any of the eastern Gulf states it will possibly mean we'll have to cancel our KY Roundup trip. Sheesh! We've only been looking forward to it for a whole year! No towing a trailer in high winds.
We're hearing the projected path is pretty sure up until Ivan hits Cuba then they really don't know. The projections are then all over the map and none of the 3 computers agree. They also tell us that Cat 5 status is hard to maintain and they expect some weakening but no matter where she goes she will probably still remain a major storm.
Somebody here in Florida (one of our techs) wanted to see a hurricane first hand...he's talked about it for years but was the first one Monday telling us how wrong he'd been and he never wants another storm. What a couple of days of fear and no electricity will do to change a mind! LOL We could always blame this on him...I know I'll be mentioning it in the morning!
This is an unbelievable picture. Look how little Jamica looks compared to Ivan. They are saying it may lose some steam as it gets near Cuba and then into some cooler water. I found another really good website for updates on the islands. http://stormcarib.com/ Keeping all you Florida friends in my prayers
Glad you liked the link I think it is interesting because it is written by real people not the news. Good idea about the ice most of the arguements I saw (on the news )in FL after francis were over the 1 bag per houshold rule on ice.
DH just spoke to his dispatch (the young lady was recently transferred from Nova Scotia, Canada) and is now located in St. Petersburg, Florida. She has a bad cold, is stressed out and her motorcycle is not working...she said she is mighty sick of all of this.
Originally posted this on Frances thread, then found this thread, so decided to copy it here...
Wow...finally getting to check in. Am glad that all our DGers made it through Frances safe with only property loss.
Since we live in a mobile, we evacuated (mandatory for our area for mobiles) to our nieces CBS house about 10 miles south of us. 14 of us there (5 adults, 5 kids, 4 dogs - not counting the fish!) 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom...no power or phone from Saturday afternoon on...we even lost cell phones from Sunday through Tuesday. Tons of rain & very strong wind. No damage at niece's. Our place lost 2 great big pines (but very fortunately, they both missed our house!!) lots of Oak limbs down, some roof damage, with a major leak in one of our bathrooms, and a few minor leaks throughout the house. We got power back at niece's place on Wednesday afternoon, at our place yesterday. Brought all our stuff back home yesterday evening (had our van & Suburban packed full with clothing, food & miscellaneous items).
Now, with Ivan threatening to come up the west coast, don't know whether to unpack or not. Unfortunately our only highway worthy vehicle is a PT Cruiser...will fit the family (not including the pets, though) and maybe a weeks worth of luggage. The van & Suburban both have transmission problems and probably wouldn't make it 50 miles from here...
If it looks like Ivan isn't going to change course or intensity, we're planning on putting everything we can into a small (about 12'x12') basement we have (yep, an actual basement in Florida - it's under our shed, and houses our well pump) and packing the family into the car and heading out...not sure where yet; we've got family up in DeFuniak Springs (which probably won't be a very good 'hiding place' from Ivan; it's located in the panhandle), friends in Jacksonville and are even considering possibly just taking off for DH's hometown up in SW Ohio. I hate the thought of being away from here and not knowing how our home weathers the storm, but safety for the family has to be the first consideration. Still don't know what we'll do with the pets, though, as there just isn't room for them in the vehicle (have 1 small dog, 1 big dog, 1 cat, 4 fish). If Ivan weakens, we'll probably try sticking it out at niece's again; at least there we can try to get out and check on our place from time to time.
One weather person I heard the other day said something about the possibility that if Ivan got strong enough, it could acutally implode upon itself, basically destroying itself. I just can not pray that the storm changes paths, as that would just put someone else in harm's way, but I am praying for a miracle. Hope that all our DGers remain safe.
Good to hear from you Beth, taking a long time for everybody to check in and Ivan on his way. oh, My. I wouldn't bother to unpack. I can also see the urge to stay at niece's place, might be hard to get back in after he goes. If he's a five when he gets there, yu may not want to go back. Will niece keep dogs if you leave without 'em?
I'm sure she would, but they're planning on boarding up and leaving...these last five days were really stressful for her, her 'live-in' and her son (4 yrs old).
If it were just me & DH to consider, we'd almost definitely just stay at niece's and weather the storm, but we've got 3 girls to consider, too, (ages 26, 18 & 12) and one of them is handicapped (the 26 yr old), so it's really hard to feel comfortable with possibly putting them in harm's way.
If Ivan is a 5 when he gets here, there won't be a 'home' to go back to...and that thought is really killing me. 13 years of life/memories in this house. In my 46 years of life, this is the longest I've ever been in one place (dad was in the service, so the longest we were ever in one place was maybe 6 years and even after I 'left home', I moved from place to place every 4 or 5 years or so. lol...I finally got to the point in my life where the urge to 'roam' was gone and I feel like I've actually got roots (lol...in more ways than one!) and now this. I keep telling myself that I will accept whatever the Creator puts in my path and keep trying to find the positive aspects to look at...but it sure is hard to do sometimes...
I can only imagine the stress. And am amazed to think you can get five people into a PT they look smaller than that. Maybe it will spin itself to death. That's a new one to me. I too find it hard to find a positive aspect to this. ~Blooms
Beth- Earthquakes are unpredictable. Unlike hurricanes. Hurricanes will come predictably every year. There is a hurricane season in Florida. There is no earthquake season and they are few and far between. Knock on wood, in 1 1/2 years, I have felt one little bump. Nothing fell of the shelves even. And I live on a fault line.
Thanks for all your prayers, Friends...I'm getting pretty nervous here. Got my first cold the other day...and who says stress doesn't make you sick. Only a few more hours and we will know our fate. What a month this has been.
BuriedTreasures if you do decide to "stand in the middle of one of these storms, before I'll go any place that snows. Yuck" Please let me know and I'll send an email to one of our members in Nova Scotia and she can fish you out there. p.s. the northern Atlantic is a lot colder than here! ;)
I have been living in Southern California since about 1967 and have felt a number of earthquakes. None of them did any damage. I was living in Garden Grove at the time of the Sylmar earthquake. It was early morning and I was still in bed. I woke up and wondered if it was over, I looked at an empty picture frame hanging on the wall and it was standing away from the wall so I knew the earthquake was still happening.
The most spectacular was years later was the Whittier earthquake. I was living in this house. I had just put my thrash cans out and had bent over to pick up something off the street. For some reason I looked down the street to the West. There was this ripple some 6 to 10 inches high coming rapidly towards me. It felt like my face was going to touch the pavement as it went past. Now I know that what I saw was not what actually happened, the curbs would have broken. I heard glass tinkling somewhere nearby. In my house a book fell off of a bookshelf. There was no other damage.
I will take earthquakes over hurricanes and tornados. I grew up in Nebraska and one time saw 5 tornados at one time. We never had any damage but as radar and weather forcasting got better we were constantly worried during the season.
They sure have come along way with tornado spotting. Charley spawned 11 or 12 tornadoes in her wake. I'll tell you nothing raises hair faster than hearing the meteorologists/newscasters telling you to take cover immediately. I feel lucky to have never seen a tornado but I've seen plenty of water spouts. We were about 100 miles offshore in the Gulf watching a storm brewand saw 3 waterspouts coming off the leading edge of the storm. It was incredible to watch them dip up and down and stretch til they finally just pulled back up and disappeared. How I wish I'd been able to get pictures. Odd that we've never been afraid of waterspouts, you just never hear of anyone being hurt by them.
George your description of the quakes is fascinating. They name the earthquakes? Do they have to be destructive or memorable to be named? I can't imagine feeling the earth move under my feet and out of the blue.
I agree earthquakes are scary,,, we have a few very very small ones here,, but living with the big ones would scare me,, I'm glad I live here ,,, I give all of you a ton of credit having to deal with how bad mother nature can be when she is in a bad mood !!
Weeds, Gins and other Panhandlers...how are the hurricane preparations going? I hope things are going well!
It's a total madhouse down here and it looks like we're going to miss the brunt of it this time. Do you know I can't even buy a can of Great Northern Beans? Only Garbanzos are left!
By the way... all y'all in the Ohio Valley, listen up!! One of the models from Ivan suggests Ivan could stall once in the Ohio Valley, bringing even more rain and flooding than what I show in the link just above.
Finally!!! Got gas for the brand new generator!! Been off and on all day looking. I went out before 6am and got gas for my car. When I got back, hubby and I hopped in the truck and went back up to the gas station to get gas for his truck and the generator. The line was humungous!! We went out to Home Depot to see about getting plywood to board up the windows (yeah, I know...procrastination and all that) but that line was a 3 - 4 hour wait. We'll go back tomorrow around 5 am. We will still have to wait, but at least we won't have to wait in 90 degree heat and full sun. Hubby finally went out again a few minutes ago and the lines at the pumps had gotten much shorter and he was able to gas up his truck and fill the tank for the generator.
Ivan seems to have taken a slight turn west. Hope he keeps going that way, no offense to those up in the panhandle or further west, but I think I have had just about enough of hurricanes! My sister in Fort Pierce has finally found an apartment and has electricity and phones. Last I checked, she still did not have power at the Legion but other Legions around the area with power were bringing them ice. Other Legions around the state who were not hit as hard as them have been sending truck loads of supplies so they have opened their doors to any and all that need food, water and other sundry goods.
Hope everyone else in Florida weathers this one. I'm going to keep on believing that story about the American Indians who put a spell on the Tampa Bay area to keep horrible hurricanes from ever devastating the area!!
Sally, I really MUST put in a good word for the American Legion Halls here. So many people have seen them as simply a place to drink cheaper. Your sister's experience contradicts that.
The American Legion has a sub-group called "The 40 and 8" which comes from WW1 in France when boxcars could carry 40 men or 8 horses. The 40 & 8 has a dual purpose: have fun, and raise money.
They fund many, many nursing scholarships all year long, and also hold basketball camps for underpriveledged kids and handicapped kids. My oldest brother has been active in the 40 & 8 for many years, since he was in Vietnam, and my dad and step-mother were also active when they were able.
My brother is now what might be called "Chairman or President" of all the Florida Chapters (but his position has a French name) and I know they are very active right now in help for the homeless and hungry from Frances and Charley.
darius, you are so right! My sister and her husband helped found Post 358 in Fort Pierce. They actually helped build the bar and lay the fancy tiles on the floors. They have always been active in Legion activities. When Charley devastated South Florida, they helped put together a truck load of supplies and sent it off to the Arcadia Legion. Now, Arcadia is reciprocating and sending them supplies. When the Port St. Lucie Legion lost it's roof in Francis, they sent a case of tarps down to them to give them some shelter. St. Lucie, in return, continues to bring ice to the Ft. Pierce Legion which still had no power as of Thursday. The American Legions are wonderful groups. They help the elderly, the young, the disabled and anyone else that needs help. Yes, the Legion is a great place to go and have a drink...a drink with a wonderful group of caring people who are always willing to lend a helping hand. My hat is off to all the Legions around the country. And all the AmVets, Moose Lodges, etc. that are always on the front lines of helping others. God Bless you all!!!
And sis, if you see this, I love you. Take some time for yourself. You surely do deserve it!!!
stay on your toes peps !!! keep strong !!! peps like us are here for ya !!!
I know our Local Teamsters (Auto) Union sent down trucks of ice and stuff,, I hope they come back and get more for you !!!
The Red Cross and Salvation Army left out the day after to come help, and the power companies sent man power and trucks !! hope this helps some,, as if and when Ivan hits , I hope the people continue to help out !!
From the 8pm Advisory:
[quote]AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 912 MB...26.93 INCHES. THIS IS THE SIXTH LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE ON RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. [/quote]
In case you don't know what that means, lower pressures = more devastation.
Ya know what? Sitting on this rock in the middle of the Pacific with 2 VERY active volcanos is sissy stuff compared to what you guys are going thru... And, I don't think I want to trade. Good luck to all of you in harms way.
Don't forget to have extra meds with you...and lots of water!
I have the weather channel on now,, and they are going over who is going to be impacted ,,, ,, the cayman island now well at least 150 miles out.. and they are telling them to take cover and be prepaired !!
all I know is if its coming your way ,, be prepaired,,,be safe
When I look at LSP's link above and where Ivan has been and knowing that BIG hurricanes move by their own momentum. I don't understand how they can be so dang sure he is going to go north soon and smack Cuba after the Caymens. They say that New Orleans has only a 5% chance of being in the path!! Or, am I just way2...?
NOAA's last few loops show it headed due west to my unsci-eye yet they say northwest in their print - am I not taking the earth curve into account?
Does anybody else think there were a bunch of folks in Jamaica asking for intervention just before Ivan took that jog away from direct hit? when they show the red trail of where it's been that jog lqqks really weird compared to the rest of its track.
This track reminds me of one in the late 80's I think it was, can't remember the name but that storm stalled in the Gulf for 2 days then went into Biloxi, Mississippi and raised Cain there.
We were in the Tampa area for Charley and the local weather guys were insisting that the track would be into Tampa Bay right up to the last minute when it turned eastward and came into Charlotte Harbor as everyone knows NOW. I don't think one guess is any better than another...
I'm so glad we only have tornadoes to deal with. At least the devastation path isn't usually more than 1/4 to 1/2 a mile wide. 1 mile wide is usually tops, very seldom is it wider than that. But then, we don't have the amount of warning you folks get. Y'all stay safe and EVACUATE if Ivan the Terrible comes your way at the speed it's going right now.
This looks like the big one so far, but lots can happen to weaken it before it hits land, and I sure am hoping. I am about 15 miles off the water of the Gulf Coast, so I sure am watching. Florida has just about had it this year, and I sure don't want to see a cat. 5, with a 25-30 foot surge go to New Oleans area, since they are below sea level and that would probably destroy them. I am in Gulfport, just west of Biloxi, Mississippi, so we all just need to watch and wait, and be prepared soon as possible.
I almost had a heart attack when I watched the 10:00 p.m. news Saturday night. In the few hours that I was away, the track had shifted quite a bit more westward.
The local meteorologists are still saying that there is only a 'slim' chance of a hit on New Orleans (but they are beginning to sound cautious and very worried). I am not too optimistic at this point, after seeing the ridge of High pressure that looks as if it is going to push that puppy into the Gulf of Mexico -- and THEN turn it northward.
Darius, you were right. It is like watching a slow-moving train wreck. And I hope that I'm not smack dab in the middle of the tracks!
Good morning everyone and it is so calm and nice here all I can think about is what it is was like long ago without all these wonderful ways to warn us of these formidable storms. The path at this moment puts the eye directly hitting Panama City, well that would be me! What if we didn't know this thing was on the way? OF course it will meander about in the gulf for days before the strongest air current decides it path but we will start to make plans to get the heck out of dodge in the next day or so. I hope all in it's path do the same. I am just thankful for CNN, the Weather Channel and DG!
Weeds, right now it looks like it is coming to you!!! Good for me (that puts me on the west side of the storm), bad for you. Definately worth watching,though. This one has done some interesting wobbles which have really changed the projected path. So, if it comes to you, then you are going to evacuate? I am staying unless it is a cat 4. Then I am booking it.
Bill and I are waiting and watching as well. No plans to evacuate. Hopefully our propane tank will stay put...I have a gas stove so at least we could still cook and the generator can keep the fridge and freezer going. Our neighbor has his generator rigged so he can run his well pump..we can get water from him if need be,but we'll have a good amount on hand. Gotta figure out plants...the brugs were NOT happy in the shed during Frances so they will come inside. I'm sure the dogs will be glued to me..poor babies don't like storms!
Stacey...back when we lived on St. George Island a HUGE water spout crossed the bay. When it hit the mainland it kept on going as a tornado. 3 people from 1 family were killed. I was at work at the time..when I looked out the back door I saw 4 or 5 small funnel clouds overhead. Made my skin crawl! Fortunately none of them touched down.
Good luck everyone in Ivan's possible path. God bless us all and stay safe. (((HUGS)))
Sis over in Fort Pierce just called, said there was a room for me at the Legion. :) I have been closely monitoring this one and unless it takes a humungous turn to the north and east very soon, we have lucked out once again. If the current path runs true, I am going to call our friend, Jerry, who is 1/4 native american, and kiss him!! There is an old tale that goes around Tampa Bay stating that many, many years ago, there was a horrible storm that devastated the Tampa Bay area. The native americans put a spell on the area after that to prevent another such devastating storm. God Bless the native american shamans!!! :)
I can hardly believe the continued intensity of this storm. It started out mean and has stayed a mean one throughout.
Darius, I am also concerned about the pressure drop. It is awesome. If this storm doesn't blow my eyebrows off, it will certainly do bad things to my sinuses. LOL.
It sure is interesting to compare the various projected paths. The Weather Channel (a joke in my estimation) and Intellicast are NOT the same as the National Weather Service or the National Hurricane Center. They are commercial companies with their own independent meteorologists and, sometimes, their forecasts differ from the NHC's.
But even the NHC's forecast track is east of most of the computer models (and has been throughout). This worries me greatly because I think that many people who rely solely on television coverage may be caught unawares. I am also worried that there will be a big scramble to get out of the New Orleans area and that there won't be time enough to do so.
This area is in a unique position because it is ten feet BELOW sea level (except for Lisa, who has a one-foot 'mountain' on her property - LOL).
Much (but not all) of the New Orleans area is surrounded by a ring of levees. A direct hit from a slow-moving Category 3 storm, or any Categoy 4 or 5 storm would breech the levees, push water in from the Gulf, and also, the counter-clockwise wind would sweep the water out of VERY large Lake Pontchartrain into the levee-bowl, totally inundating the area. And then the very levees that are designed to protect us would hold that water in the "bowl" for a very long time. Even a very close call could be devastating.
I do not look forward to this possibility.
I guess we'll know where Ivan is heading when you next see Geraldo. At last report, he looked rather disappointed that Ivan was not going to smack the Keys, where he is currently stationed. He will be heading for where the action is :D
Darius, I updated the "Ivan" page to show more (and perhaps more reliable) data:
Thanks for all your effort, LSP, to provide us with the best weather site available anywhere!!!!
Ya'll be safe over there, y'hear!
Seriously, I remember the last time New Orleans took a hit, and it sure wasn't pretty! But like the rest of us, it too came back as beautiful as ever!
Any loss of life is always one to many. But think of how many people survive major natural disasters. I'm not at all making light of the danger involved.
But I believe if we trust in God to keep us safe according to His Will, then whatever happens should happen. He will lead us to safer havens or lead us to stay put. All we have to do is listen to His guidance. (Sorry if I stepped out of bounds on this weather forum.)
YIKES, Tommy Richards just said that they fear its going to threaten the northern gulf of mexico. Then he proceeded to use his finger to demonstrate the strike area between the la/ms line to the ms/al line...durn, we're right smack dab in the middle of it. ..
Thats it, calling our friends in Missouri.
Lilypon, I corrected the link in my first post so that you will be taken directly to the latest information on Ivan. Thanks to all for your well wishes.
I am hoping that the hurricane will downgrade itself before reaching land. Unfortunately, it appears as if Ivan will miss hitting the tip of Cuba (no insult intended to the folks there, but that makes it worse for us). That means that Ivan will most probably pass through the Yucatan channel into the warm and toasty UNTAPPED water of the Gulf of Mexico.
The weak Low to our west may not be strong enough to erode the ridge of High pressure over the eastern U.S., and the steering currents are very poor at present, which is making the local meteorologists think that Ivan will be guided more into the Central Gulf, and then north. Sheesh! I only have one nerve left, and Ivan is getting on it!
(Note: Nowhere on my posts do I ever mean to be 'flip' about hurricanes. It's just that my innate and very strong sense of humor -- even 'graveyard humor,' always carries me through any crisis, and helps me keep a balanced approach and perspective).
Darius, you drove over the Causeway? (a 24-mile-long bridge over the middle of Lake Pontchartrain, for those who aren't familiar with it). And didn't stop to see me? LOL. It probably was a while back, but if you come to my neck of the woods again, you'd better stop here!
Judith, thanks for the compliments. Working on that page helps me to keep an eye on the information and graphics I want to see, and it also keeps me occupied so that I don't sit here and brood incessantly over what COULD happen.
I'mWay, I haven't seen this amount of cautious reporting in a while. I think all of the agencies are in a 'cover-your-butt' mode, and they also really cannot, at this time, make any valid predictions. The information is still just so 'iffy.'
Sorry to bore you with this too-long post, but this ALSO keeps me from going stir-crazy! LOL.
Jean, I am in Gulfport, right next to you. I am more afraid for you if Ivan comes to you. You all will not have a chance. Not meaning to sound so doom and gloom, but my sister is in Reserve in Louisiana too and believe me, I would prefer the doggoned storm to come here than to y'all. The evacuation routes will be bumper to bumper, since we have the casinos that will be moving into the bayous and back bay here, blocking some of the north-south roads because the bridges will be open to let the casinos through the waterway. Don't wait too long to get out. That web site you have is great. I like the prayer at the end of it, much needed now.
Thanks Roz. I will be leaving either later this evening or tomorrow morning. It would be more convenient to leave Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning, but I'm afraid that by that time, evacuation traffic will have grid-locked the highways and Interstates.
Is you sister planning to leave also? She is just below and to the Left of Lake Pontchartrain.
Don't let your guard down in Gulfport either! Be VERY careful. What are your plans?
Not sure about our plans right now. Probably will stay here, since we are just north of 1 10, and not right on the water. We were here for Camille and many others since I have lived here all of my life, and the worse seems to be the storm surge and tornadoes. I am away from the storm surge, and who can tell about tornadoes. Your web site is great; I just saw the stuff for kids. This is really going to pass some time until we lose power; we will have a house full of grandkids. It is never too early for kids to learn all about weather, especially if they are going to stay in this area. Do not wait too long to leave; you will find bumper to bumper traffic. Where will you go, north? You could probably jump on 49 just outside of Slidell that should take you around all the coast 49 traffic. I am sure you know this area very well and have given this a lot of thought. God be with all of you in New Orleans and sourthern Louisiana.
Jean, glad to hear you are leaving sooner rather than later. Make sure that wherever you go that there is enough high ground to accommadate thousands of potential refugees and that you have secured a place to stay awhile. Good luck to you & ya'll!
LSP, is that bridge referred to as the foot long?
I think its time to start making plans here..i could swear when i was on the radiation table i heard that it was heading directly towards the la/ms line...
new updates are coming up.
Jean, if I had known you all those years ago when I was last in N.O. I would certainly have stopped, LOL. It's an impressive ride across that bridge because it seems to go on forever. Longest bridge I'd been over before that one was Seven Mile Bridge in the FL Keys, long before it was widened.
Looks like your worst fears could be realized with Ivan's current track and I'm glad to see you are leaving early! Do you have a destination? Taking your computer, I assume? Do I remember you have a travel trailer packed and ready to go, or was that someone else?
Lisa, you have that truck and trailer packed like the Clampetts yet? Who else is in that area besides LSP, MsJen, Roz and you?
I sure feel for all of you that might be in the path of this storm. The waiting and watching can be agonizing. Glad to hear some of you are getting ready to take off...you should head to western Kentucky and the roundup...Hey that could be the silver lining!
Lisa I think the meteorologist and news people are being more cautious because of the mess in Florida when Charley slammed into Punta Gorda instead of Tampa Bay. I've noticed that the whole tone of the forecasts have changed since then. Have you noticed how some newscasters seem to try to scare the public while some try to reassure? There is a female meteorologist on Bay News 9 that seems to try to scare people even after things have changed. I change the channel during her shift
Floridian, sometimes I think it's better for people to be a little scared rather than complacent. Too many people get stuck in complacency and don't take enough precautions in potentially dangerous situations like this where the track can change on a dime, as Charley proved.
I'm glad to see folks from the panhandle all the way to Louisiana taking safe measures, but I wouldn't bet my dime that the forecasters are correct... yet.
Here's another good link for track and satellite and it refreshes automatically each hour http://baynews9.com/WeatherMaps.html?HURRICANE Scroll down below the picture to Tropical update: Hurrican co-ordinates animated and/or Gulf and Caribbean satellite animated.
My local news in southeastern Virginia is saying that landfall is still expected in the western panhandle of Florida, but they have also added that it could extend as far west as the Louisiana/Mississippi state line. They are also saying that since Ivan is moving westward and not hitting Cuba in the direction as previously expected there is a fair possibility that Ivan may drop from a Cat 5 to a Cat 4 or 3 once it gets into the Gulf. Still not a pretty picture.
They also added that no one can determine Ivan's path with any certainty at this time until it passes Cuba, so all of you in the possible track of Ivan please get prepared just in case.
Roz, I'm glad that you are North of I-10 and safe from storm surges.
Jen, the bridge in question is called the 'Causeway Bridge' and is a 24-mile-long span across the middle of Lake Pontchartrain.
ImWay, I would love to stay in my own home until Tuesday or Wednesday. But you are correct. By that time, the traffic will probably be horrible. Even though you are in Texas, I would still be on the alert. One never knows with these storms.
Darius, have you seen others from this area posting? (Sundry, Delphiniumdiva, MaryInLa, etc.)
Floridian, has your area shifted out of "The Cone of Uncertainty"? (That 'cone' business just kills me -- every time I hear them say that, I think of the old television series, "Get Smart" and their Cone of Silence).
I wish folks around here WOULD be more scared. I think the New Orleans area will be caught with its proverbial pants down if Ivan comes this way. If you really want to be horrified, read the book "Hurricane Audrey" by Nola Mae Ross. Read that, or go through a Category 3 hurricane (like Betsy), and you get smart enough to take the hint when a storm looks as if it will get anywhere near you.
As soon as DH gets home from work, we will pack up the van with the three cat carriers and our supplies and take-alongs AND my computer. Then, later tonight, we'll go through Metairie and take I-55 up to Hammond -- with three unhappy, yowling cats 'singing' in the back of the van (I have experience with this phenomena because they did the same thing when I evacuated for Georges -- they kept it up for FOUR hours and I was about to shoot them!).
The hotel has Internet access, so perhaps I'll be able to get back online -- or else my DH will have to put up with a woman going through Internet Withdrawal.
What's going on with the rest of you guys? What's going on in your area?
I have family and friends living in the Florida Panhandle, and I know all you guys in LA from here...and I crossed The Causeway a year and a half ago, before I knew you LSP...I will make my DH stop the next time...we stopped in Lafayette and met a woman I knew from the internet (DH hates to do that, tough!) I would love to actually meet you, Jean..and the kitties. I am glad to hear that you are prepared to leave tonight, unhappy cats...oh well, at least they will be safe, and you and DH, too.
Ellie Mae, come to Texas, if you need to...I am well inland, so it is safe here...
I have been watching Ivan as well...eventhough it won't impact me, being so far inland...there are times when I miss living near the ocean, but this is not one of them.
Everyone, be safe! I will be thinking of you all!
Wow, Walmart was like 300 pm on Christmas eve. Luckily enough, i got plenty of water, canned stuff, batteries...oil changed in the tahoe, gassed up. All thats really left now is filling the gas cans, getting the chain saw oiled and packing up odds and ends.
Down in this are we also have in DonnaB and JanetOS in ocean springs, ruby in long beach, honeybee and aunttea in saucier, ely (larry) is in loxley, ala, i'm sure theres someone im forgetting? brain dead, i think.
Talked to my horse boarder and all that we can do is turn them out and hope they use their senses to survive.
Thinking about either heading to missouri or to dallas, just want to see the next update to decide.
LSP, i think the causeway is what truckers refer to as the footlong. You get to it by 55? Like taking slidell to lake charles?
Just checking in to let ya'll know we are aware and watching . . . and to wish everyone well in this nightmare.
I have been thru too many of these things to either panic early or to sit complacent. But I don't live in New Orleans . . . if I did, I'd be looking to get out on general principles . . . same as the Florida Keys. You get out while you can, even if you aren't sure you need to, because by the time you are sure, you can't - that's not our situation. We still have plenty of time.
Anyway, all the predictions mean almost nothing until the storm gets into the gulf. Then it's a whole new ball game. I'll panic then LOL!
BTW, we are supposed to be going to the Florida panhandle next week for our yearly family vacation. DD is flying into Pensacola Monday . . . assuming there is still an airport . . . *sigh*
We spent the day tapeing windows..first the outsides have been washed in years. LOL Bill saw a thing on TV about branches touching the roof...GET RID OF THEM> I spent a good part of the day trying to hide the tears..so many trees cut in half cause they were too close to the house...Bill cut back the azaleas on the patio..oh boy now they're even all accross...whine I DON"T WANT them to be even..they are NOT a hedge. Oh well,he's a happy camper and I guess on the up side more light gets into the house now..what one can see through the duct tape! Fooey..shouldn't grumble..it we get a direct hit it may all be mute anyway.
Jean might be on her way out. I just heard on the news that many in her parish are leaving. She told me this a.m. that she wasn't going to "play around" and would likely leave. I have her cell phone number, if she hasn't posted by the next time I check in, I'll call her.
Thanks, Lisa. I just didn't want to "take over" her thread and start a continuation on my own. I have the hotel number where she's headed but have NO idea how long a drive that is from her home... plus I hate to bother someone for something so minor right now.
Are you packing up the goats and chickens yet?
MiniSchnuz, glad to see your folks are taking precautions in case the forecasters are right. You be safe, too!
Just got home and am posting what is going on in Panama City...it seems the eye will go to the west of us but we might get some bad stuff being on the northeast quandrant...at least the hurricane people think so. For our county (Bay) all schools are closed for the rest of the week...well hello vacation time! (we will have to make most of it up-boohoo) Tyndall air force base is here and I always listen for the planes to leave...when they do I know the base is being evacuated...they are already gone and the base has a mandatory evacutation for all military peeps. That is always a warning to me. An evacuation has been issued for the coastal and low lying areas, that would not be me. More will be decided later. I am just sitting and watching as I know from experience how those storms can dance, bob and weave all over the gulf. My mother and I (the animals too) have a safe place to go here in town when and if it gets bad.
I am hoping all in it's path take heed and do what is necessary to be safe...whatever that may be.
All that plan to evacuate should do so soon...it is not fun to ride out a hurricane on the road in your car full of people, animals and stuff (envision Justmelisa lookin like the Beverly Hillbillies - her description not mine).
Take care and be wise.
Tho' your message isn't the best of news it sure is good to see you posting weeds! Spent down time at the library looking at books on hurricanes :( ...so glad to read many are bugging out or have a safe place to go. I sure hope y'all can keep posting!
Well, this is not looking good.
Our latest update put us under an official hurricane watch. The watch area is Morgan City, La, to Saint Marks (?) Fl...I somehow think we are right in the middle of that.
They expect it to maintin cat 5 status just before it hits and then downgrade to a cat 4...no matter, whoever gets it is going to be in a world of hurts.
Well, St. Marks has our name on it! Tally is directly north of there.
Course we are some miles inland. But how far inland from St. Marks could we be, considering the distance from there to the northern FL border? Oh well, bring it on! I think it would be worse on us to travel again than to ride it out inland.
Good luck, and may God bless all of you who are potential victims of this monster.
Ginger_H...No plywood on those windows? Thank goodness you have such a sturdy home so you can stay here and ride it out. If Ivan does come in here, maybe I could get you to ride by and see if we still have a home here Gin? I'll try to give you a call from TN after the worst has passed..hoping we still have phones and power but they were saying possibly three weeks without power if we lose it??
Weeds...You aren't close to the bay? My oldest daughters inlaws are two blocks off and they are leaving wed morning...you sure you don't want to load Mom up and head north? lol...We are heading out before daylight tomorrow for TN. We've got a cabin reserved at the state park and are gonna have a mini vacation thanks to Ivan. I am looking forward to it 'cause I get to see Joci!!!!! Gosh, I sure miss that girl around here.
Y'all were talking about being stuck in traffic trying to evacuate...I can rememeber when Eloise (I think) came in here in '75 (?). We loaded..or rather overloaded the car and headed to Talladega Ala...It took hours to just get to the state line, the wipers stopped working and then the storm caught up to us and was ripping giant oak and pecan trees out of the ground all along the highway next to us, we stopped at a gas station for 'cover'.LOL It ripped the roof off and the gas pumps were coming outta the cement pallets. Talk about scared...omgosh was I scared. Then there were two more...I forgot the names now but I worked at the beach in one and took me about 5 hours to get home from there because I was stuck in the evacuating traffic. The last one I stayed for, I worked in a deli/convenience store and trees were falling on the building..uhg Am I scared? You betcha!
So, I choose to leave before it gets here and if he bobs on over to another area..I just got a mini vacation I wouldn't have had without it ;)
Saying a prayer for all in his path,
I just saw the one thing I have been dreading - New Orleans looks like it is in the target area. This is real bad for New Orleans cause it is so low; it will be flooded. Bad for us cause we will be on the east side of the storm, always the worst side. Hope everybody in the New Oleans area is making plans to leave. Water kills.
Ya'll all have me worried now! I'm about an hour north of Mobile,AL. My husband just came home from work and said they have cancelled school for tomorrow and Thursday. I'm headed outside right now to turn over trampolines, swingsets and move plants. Everybody take care.
Darius, yes, I guess I'm just actually just realizing how much wind we can get up here. I used to live closer to the coast than this so I was thinking we would be ok up here. But actually, I just heard that all our coastal counties had a mandantory evacuation as of 4:00 and they told them to get as far north as Jackson, which is a little above us. All the schools and Universities are closed for tomorrow, thursday and friday.
Just drove in from Lafayette where I work to New Iberia (approximately 30 miles) and the traffic going west is bumper to bumper for approximately 24 miles. Looks as if we are on the outer western edge and lucked out this time. My prayers are with all of you in the target zone. I stayed in New Iberia for Andrew and Lilly and was lucky. In Andrew we had over $15,000.00 in damages to our home and lost six (6) pecan tress in Lilly. So, take care everyone!!!!