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Weather: Tropical Storm Cristobal

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Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

July 21, 2008
7:18 PM

Post #5297127

So far TS Cristobal doesn't look like it is going to turn into a hurricane. Yayy! Folks in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland need to keep a close eye on it, though, as it heads your way.

Quoting:TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE STRONG IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM. ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE
STORM...THE AIR FORCE PLANE FOUND A FALLING PRESSURE AND SOME
EVIDENCE OF A CENTER REFORMATION TO THE SOUTH. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM
THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 50-55 KT...WHICH ISN'T
TOO FAR FROM THE SFMR DATA COLLECTED BY THE PLANE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO.
THEREAFTER...CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM
AND INTO A STRONGER SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN THE
WEAKENING PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS WHICH SHOW THIS SYSTEM STAYING JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN DUE TO TO CENTER
REFORMATION BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 055/11. A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE
TO THE EAST WITH TIME AS IT MOVES INTO MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THE
BIGGEST CHANGE FROM THE LAST ADVISORY IS THAT MORE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE STORM WON'T BE FULLY ABSORBED BY A TROUGH OVER NORTH
AMERICA AND INSTEAD ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND IS EXTENDED TO 96 HR IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE.

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