NOAA has been watching a tropical depression in the Gulf for a couple of days. They just upgraded it to a Tropical Depression. It is supposed to make landfall in 36-48 hours, possibly as a hurricane, somewhere between Western Louisiana and the Upper Texas Coast - which is roughly right where I'm sitting. :-)
[quote]THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE
GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN THIS AREA...WITH THE GFS AND
UKMET AIMING AT WESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE AIMING AT TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN
36-48 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ENCOUNTERING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...WHICH HAS GIVEN THE SYSTEM A RAGGED
APPEARANCE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DIMINISH
AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL WITH 50-55 KT WINDS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST
GFDL CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL... WHICH IS A SHARP CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO
THIS LACK OF CONSISTENCY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COAST ON THIS ADVISORY.[/quote]
[quote]THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFDL MODEL IN CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH
AT LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE.
BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND PAST FORECAST ERROR
CHARACTERISTICS...THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EDOUARD
WILL BE A HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.[/quote]
lol joy joy I just loooove these storms, NOT! Generator conked out after Umberto so DH needs to stop on his way home and buy another one. Went to the store this morning to fight for that last case of water and loaf of bread. All the lamps etc are charged up so as long as we have something to run a few fans I'll be a happy camper.
My dh is going to stop at the store on his way home, too. I was thinking about making a menu for this week and having him to big shopping, but on second thought, maybe I'll just have him pick up crackers and cheese and canned fruit, etc, in case the power goes out. I'm not expecting this to be a very big storm (as big storms go) for us (unless we get a tornado), but there are a lot of trees around here, so if a limb or a tree falls, we could be out for a while. No sense in having too much stuff in the fridge to spoil.
Most of our trees fell with Rita, and what was left were felled by Umberto so not worried about that. More about the tornado as this house doesn't have anyplace safe to go. Downstairs is all an open floorplan.
I bought stuff for hamburgers and hotdogs since we can grill them and the meat doesn't take up much room if we have to switch to the small fridge. I've taken pictures of the fridge contents as well as the freezer so done about all we can except load up a few buckets of water to freeze so we can keep the freezer cold if we lose power.
I hope you guys fare better than we did down here when Dolly came to visit! There are areas still underwater and without power, sewer and water. The mosquitoes are HORRIBLE. We got 20 inches of rain and the wind ruined our two grapefruit orchards. We lost over 50% of the crop and some growers lost 80%.