Poor Haiti is getting whupped again. Right now Gustav is a level 1 hurricane, but according to NOAA, it is expected to be:
Quoting:A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE GFDL/HWRF FORECAST SHOW AN EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE. MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTAV WILL BE
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A FEW DAYS.
Gulp. Please be careful, everyone, and keep an eye on this storm! There are three more tropical waves of interest in the Atlantic right now, too.
It's not going to be good one!!! It could be Major one! I am living in new mobile home.. with insurance covered! Tomorrow i am going to shopping to get some water and canned foods etc.. to be prepare of ahead of time.
Yep.. it's been downgraded to a tropical storm while it's going over the mountains in Haiti, but it's expected to be back to a hurricane after it gets back to open water, and a major hurricane by the time it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
Quoting:THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM EARLIER DUE TO THE INITIAL WEAKENING BUT STILL SHOWS THE STORM BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE LONGER-TERM... THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF UPPER-WIND PATTERNS...BUT IN
GENERAL THE UPPER WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
Darius, the last time Patti popped into the weather thread, she said she was mostly hanging out on some other weather websites these days as she doesn't garden anymore. I miss her, too.
Quoting:GUSTAV HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6
MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS EXPECTED
TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO JAMAICA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
There is another storm in the Atlantic, now a tropical depression, that is expected to be a tropical storm today and a hurricane in 3 days. I'll post a thread for it as soon as it has a name. Please be careful, everyone!!
Quoting:AFTER THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM JAMAICA...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS...COULD PRODUCE A STRONG HURRICANE VERY QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN CUBA AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AS SOME MODELS SHOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AT THAT TIME. A LARGE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS TROUGH MAY IMPART SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON GUSTAV AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
I waited until it was official about Gustav being upgraded before jumping in...
I have been sending E & DMails and gathering phone #'s for Contact.
Basic Phone Tree stuff that we waited FAR too long to get going last time.
I know between us here now we have a ton of contacts in TX, AR and FL,
not so sure about LA and MS anymore.
I do have JanetOS covered though.
Quoting:THE GFDL REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...WHILE THE UKMET CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN AND LANDFALL ON THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE FINAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES... WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE INTENSITY.
Check in... Lots of people are leaving this town to go safe places... the highway are still flowing bump to bump all way to north... Almost all of gas station are out of gas! I got mine filled up in my truck tonight for last time. I won't use my truck until time for us to leave.
I am packing my clothes, important papers, medicines, dog cage, foods etc.. also water and dried foods/canned foods. We are going to stay at friend house in Broussard, LA.. north of New Iberia.
We are prepare for without electric for a week or so. My both boys are with my ex and stay with him thru the storm.
I will keep you posted over at my friend house by using their internet/laptop.
I think and hope it will be a ghost town down there this time.
If your connections fail call one of us so we know you're OK.
It appears this will be a wild ride for someone.
It looks as if our fearless leaders are actually doing some pre-disaster work THIS TIME.
A State of Emergency has been declared.
This frees up the issuing of evac orders, help organization call ups, supplies and money BEFORE it's needed.
Man what a NOVEL idea!
So far Cat 1 and 80mph.
Animated maps now show a path using LA as the lane.
It looks like the Gulf Water Temps are slightly higher than normal so Cat 1 probably won't hold once Gustav reaches there.
Quoting:...THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. GUSTAV WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LONGER-TERM...WHICH COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS.
Quoting:GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS GUSTAV PASSES NEAR AND OVER WESTERN CUBA. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER GUSTAV REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HANNA...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER, ...STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST... SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW KEEPS HANNA JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED ONCE AGAIN... THAT THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS BELOW ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE.
I'm glad to see some early preparation along the Gulf Coastal areas. It's not going to be pretty, wherever he lands. Hanna may just skate between Cuba and Key West and follow Gustav with a one-two punch.
Gustav is now a Category 4 with sustained winds of 145 mph
Special update from the NHC at 1:20pm
WTNT62 KNHC 301718
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
120 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 200 PM
EDT TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. THE SPECIAL
PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.
Please everyone, get out if you can...NOW
Don't even consider trying to get through this in a mobile home.
If you stay, be prepared for 3 days of "self reliance"
If you're in a flood zone, leave.
Experienced in Florida,
We are as ready as we can be, we've moved things indoors, caulked the windows, food, water, meds are all stocked up we've bought a new generator. After Katrina and Umberto the old one just wasn't up to another storm. We've found and bought this niffty lill 8000 ntu portable A/C that all you have to do is run a hose out a door or crack in a window...and it has wheels! How cool is that *G* During Katrina we only had fans and I was not a happy camper so this time I'm ready. DH is in town as we speak buying the final "man toy" a short barrel remington. I'm not a huge gun fan but law enforcement here told us that being alone in the house with no power, no phones and no alarm last hurricane was just plain stupid.
LouisianaSweetPea, you have good reason to be scared after all you have been through before.
Araness, I'm not for guns either, but in some cases, it just makes sense. I have a lot of food stockpiled, and I'm very willing to share it... but not losing it all at gunpoint. Never mind what else the Crazies get into their heads to do...
SweetPea scared is not a bad thing.
I means you're smart enough to see the problem.
But it is still days away.
You are probably not in an area I'd stay in w/ the current projected path.
The path will firm up... then you'll know more.
It is still a CAT 4... but a WIDE Cat 4... better safe...
Check your local news for more info.
I know Directv is running an Evac station and has all the updates.
Sweet Pea do you have any person you could evac with? If I remember correctly Mount Herman sits right above New Orleans. I-10 is already very busy but so far from what we saw going to and fro this morning (DH is on his way home now) everyone still has gas. Saw several DOT trucks on the road checking on the folks who were on the side of the road. Lets hope this goes off without a hitch
LOL I think I saw my house in that Wundermap...rut row this isn't looking good now is it. All kidding aside for those of you in trailers or in flood zones please leave now, remember Hurricane Katrina's winds aren't what did NO in, it was the waters and they aren't any better now than then. I 10 is still open both ways but I expect that to change by in the morning since that is when they have announced they plan a mand evac. For Rita we cut up north to the lakes (Lufkin etc) then across and had lots less traffic.
There is no such thing as a "minor hurricane". Tropical storm Fay dumped 36 inches of rain in Melbourne Fl., in a little over 24 hours!
Don't panic, just pay attention and be prepared. A generator is worth every cent it cost.( Please use proper ventilation,place it outside)
After Charley went through Arcadia Fl in 04 ( our grandbaby lived there then) there were several signs in yards that stated " Looters will be shot" and they weren't kidding.
Good luck to everyone on the northern gulf coast.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL CROSS WESTERN
CUBA TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
Sanita water is a major problem here also, as we are one giant swamp. As to the sign, I'll have one up if needed and mean it. That is one of the main reasons we waited so long to buy a gun. My dear sweet gentle DH has problems killing anything and if he had his way we wouldn't eat meat. My rule is if you have a gun be prepaired to shoot to kill, my father taught us all how to fire a gun and WHEN. We never played with them growing up because we understood that they weren't toys. When the DH prepaired himself mentally I was fine with it but having a gun and not the will to use it just puts yourself in more danger IMHO.
You're absolutely right about the firearm awareness. I was raised in Alabama and our father and uncles always had guns. We knew to NEVER touch a gun, period. We have a weapon now that was given to us by my father. I've fired it, don't like it, but know how to use it. Having a gun without knowing how to use it is worse than needing one and not having it. I hope we never need ours, but if we do I know how to use it. My DH is a Vietnam vet, his theory is " guns are for killing ,if you're not prepared to kill ,you don't need a gun" He also doesn't hunt.(because the animals aren't armed)
Be careful and be as prepared as you can be.
The 8PM forecast/advisory remains the same as the one above.
Cat 4 could strengthen to Cat 5
Before the Moderators step in please curtail the Gun talk...
It scares those already nervous.
Serves no purpose.
Evac plans and help in finding routes absolutely helps.
Here's a little blurb I was just EMailed
Gov. Haley Barbour had sought the designation to get emergency services in place in advance of the storm. During a Saturday afternoon new conference, Barbour said contra flow will begin at 4 a.m. Sunday and last at least through midnight, making many of the major highways one-way escape routes.
The governor said hours could be extended if traffic remains heavy.
Barbour said all lanes of Interstate 59 from the Louisiana state line to Polarville will be northbound. He said all lanes of Interstate 55 from the Louisiana state line to Bogue Chitto will be northbound.
Barbour said southbound traffic will be re-routed.
Barbour warned residents of south Mississippi that while the track for Gustav takes it west of Louisiana, past hurricanes have been shown that they can turn east at any time
Officials said that 120 school buses will leave Sunday morning from the Mississippi Coliseum to pick up evacuees who need transportation
New Orleans plans to have 1500 Police and 2000 National Guard in place to secure the evacuated areas. These areas will be cordoned off.
Dusk to dawn curfew w/ mandatory arrests for anyone breaking curfew.
Also they ARE evacuating Pets this time... and providing Cat carriers.
Those of us responsible people with firearms hope to NEVER feel the need to use them. Did you not see videos from New Orleans in the aftermath of Katrina??? If I feel the need to loot, it would be for food,water,water purification, medication, not a shopping cart full of Nikes! I don't feel anyone here is promoting "gun violence"
Again, please be aware and evacuate if necessary. In 2004 we learned no place in Florida is safe. When we lived in Sarasota, we used to evacuate to my friend's house in Orlando, 2004 taught us that wasn't a sure bet at all. She got a hit from , Charley,Frances and Jeanne. She evacuated!
Hunker Down, and please be as safe as you can!!
It is essential that anyone within the projected path of this hurricane evacuate as soon as possible. It has taken a historical track similar to Katrina. We were having regular rain storms prior to Faye, so the Gulf waters were far cooler than they are now. Since Faye, we have had blistering hot weather with no rain. The Gulf is now so warm that intensifying is inevitable. Be safe. Be smart. Be careful. Get out.
Well they have ordered mandatory evac for us so thats a bonus if we do leave LOL means insurance will pay for it *Gives USAA a big fat kiss!* We still plan on staying as it stands now we still have plenty of time to hop in the car by Monday night if the path changes.
As to the gun topic I wasn't aware that guns are off limits...the list seems to be getting long.
I agree ~ in deep east TX the heat has not let up ~ I am sure the Gulf heat will aid Gustav on its' determined path.
We are inland 100 miles or so and still bore damage from Rita. Evacuees have been steady all day and local fuel stops have had to have additional deliveries. The local law enforcement is set up to direct traffic beginning tomorrow a.m. and evacuation route signs were going up this evening. They are hoping the burden of the traffic will be steady over this long weekend so it will flow north without delay.
Locals and evacuees alike have assaulted the grocery shelves and water supplies and once again, I wonder why folks aren't prepared in advance. I understand sentiments run high on the gun issue but I consider guns to be a tool as are my tiller, spade and pressure cooker.
Quoting: Before the Moderators step in please curtail the Gun talk...
I am hoping this is not an antigun site.
I do appreciate the tracking service offered and pray that all will survive whatever lies ahead.
Pod I know many people who come through on the way to other safer places or higher ground don't have a chance to say this, so let me. Thank You, to all those towns that we swarm into use all your gas, empty your shelves and then get back in our cars. Often times our minds are fixed on our homes left behind, friends, loss of pay any number of things and we forget that extra smile or to say excuse me. So for all of us who have been evacuees in the past, will be so in the future or are right now...Thanks from the bottom of our hearts to those of you who shelter us, feed us and in general put up with us when we aren't our best.
LOL Mimi I don't think so, not in the official meaning of the word but if you've ever seen a swarm of rednecks when they have been told it's gonna snow in April in Alabama you have an idea of what many towns along the evac route are up against right now
Araness, I must say the majority of our hearts go out to those displaced by the hurricanes. Our little community is too small to be a shelter community. It lacks facilities, adequate utilities or supplies but that hasn't stopped them from harboring those who couldn't go any further.
I can only imagine the feeling of abandonment. Pets left behind or lost on the Rita road due to heat strokes. Families spending money they didn't have to buy fuel and necessities. When the worst weather hit, folks camped out in carwash stalls and parking lots and hoped only for the best. Locals had a few problems and those do remain in our memories but it doesn't stop folks from being compassionate toward those that may have more... but now have less.
As a result of Katrina, we found a beautiful older male cat that was lost. I am so sad that his owner lost him and so glad we have enjoyed his company. I wish his owner could know he is loved and cared for...
Best wishes all... stay safe however you chose to weather the storm!
edited to add ~ it was a beautiful Russian blue male cat ~ wearing a shoulder harness for a leash...
lol Mimi I'm from central Alabama and several times when we got ice storms in April it was a riot...course It's a university town so the ABC was the first cleared out then came the rest. I loved sitting back and watching and laughin. It's then that I learned that no matter the level of education you tell a college kid it's gonna ice or snow and all the brains (min included on many a day) just drain out of the head. I would like to think I've learned a bit now and that the ABC is very far down on my list but...while cleaning and doing wash today my DH asked if we had any beer for "after" when he was doing clean up...seems the two go hand in hand...who knew?!?
Oh Pod you got a special Angel in that one I'm sure, we sheltered after Katrina and again after Rita even though Orange is a small town they did the best they could with what they had. I worked the Red Cross during both and it broke my heart some days others it just made me angry.
My DP (darling puppy) is always first in my thoughts and would be the only reason right now we'd leave for at least one night. She hates storms..the day after Rita we came home, husband had to work and they had called me from the Red Cross..so here we are hot, no power no generator one small battery and a fan...who do you think got the fan that night? Yep, you guessed it HRH Zapita I. We placed the ice packs under several towels and put it in her crate along with the fan which we ran off of two UPS we had for our computers. Serg and I so hot we couldn't stand to even look at each other while the angel slept away.
Hello from Miami. It has been my home for 6 years, and I keep coming back every now and then (work, not vacation). I learned what a hurricane means because I caught two busy hurricane seasons. But my heart was really broken by Katrina, who damaged one of the top10 places to visit while in US (I am a foreigner) - New Orleans, the land of dreams (Louis Armstrong's voice is so clear in my mind).
Today it was a very windy and rainy day, and Miami is far away from Gustav right now. I am praying for everyone to stay safe, dry and with no damage!
Please, if you can, get out of its path!
Hoping and praying for it to just go away into nowhere,
I am really lookin forward to see how our new Off coach does...we don't get a chance to go to many games but living so close (5 miles) from the LA state line we get picked on from all the LSU fans. It's funny the older guy across the street from me is an AU grad so he and I are the only ones with Auburn flags flying during football season.
He btw whimped out on me and headed to South Alabama on me today...he might wish he stayed here!
11:00 PM, Winds have dropped and are sustained around 120 mph after crossing Cuba.
Quoting:ALL GUIDANCE FORECAST RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 135 KT IN 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO SHEAR AND LOWER HEAT CONTENT...THEN FASTER WEAKENING OVER LAND. DUE TO THE VARIOUS FACTORS...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST.
Up here we swear the Winter Storm Warnings are all sponsered by Krogers.
The first hint of snow and all the shelves empty out.
I wasn't at any time suggesting that The Gun topic is forbidden here at Dave's.
Don't know ... don't really care.
It's just a Hot Topic and like politics and religion leads to hot answers and debates.
Those Threads get Yanked fast.
Not really my place to say but I've been there...done that...
I was here during Katrina and Rita and panic sets in fast.
Many members here didn't have a way out or a place to go.
So confusion reigned.
This is going to be at least a 48 hour affair...
Then a long drawn out search for Members.
Hopefully many more Phone Trees have been established
From now on I'll 'Cite' my sources.
Sorry I forgot to do that sooner.
From the LA Times:
New Orleans will close its airport to commercial flights about 6 p.m. Sunday as the city braces for Hurricane Gustav. Ticketed passengers are urged to contact their respective airlines “as soon as possible,” according to a statement today by the Air Transport Assn.
From NOAA 11 PM
THE EYE OF GUSTAV CROSSED WESTERN CUBA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND IS NOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
HURRICANE WEAKENED DURING PASSAGE OVER LAND...WITH THE EYE BECOMING
CLOUD FILLED AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE IN
BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 120 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE STORM ABOUT 06Z TO DETERMINE THE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD
TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...WEST OF
HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 530 MILES...850 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WHILE GUSTAV HAS WEAKEN DURING PASSAGE OVER CUBA...IT IS
FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT TIME...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
This Puppy is going to hit somewhere in the Gulf States.
Strength, Location, Size still to be determined basically.
By this time tomorrow night they will have it locked pretty much down.
Sleep well ALL!
Remember the Boy Scout Motto... 'The Girl Scouts shower at 9'...
Oh wait 'Be Prepared' that's the one... Sorry ;-)
I will be staying put here in Chambers Co. 55miles west of beaumont. I have no where to go and no funds to do it. I think my neighbor is staying put but only time will tell. There won't be shelters and during Rita the Police and sheriffs department left at 7 pm. I have a few canned goods and water. And my 38 Ruger is losded with hollow pts.
I remember the gangs flooding the streets immediately after Katrina hit. They were carrying all kinds of guns. Even seems they had machine guns. They had that planned in advance. It is a shame we have to be prepared but I am happy I have a gun to be safe and for no other reason. I would rather not need it but I would rather be with it than without it.
Stay Safe everyone, And as they said keep in touch. I remember sending letters to some of DGers in Katrina trying to find them. got to finish laundry and dishes in the morning. Wish I had a generator.
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120
MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
Well it appears Cuba knocked Gustav back a bit more than they first thought.
WTNT42 KNHC 310857
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
APPARENTLY...THE INTERACTION WITH WESTERN CUBA TOOK MORE OF A TOLL
ON THE HURRICANE THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED WITH MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 112 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 98 KT...AND A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 958 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM THIS WEAKENING
TREND AS THE EYE NO LONGER VISIBLE. AIRCRAFT AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS
ALSO INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED TO AROUND 25 N MI IN
DIAMETER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KT...AND GUSTAV
MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WEAKER FOR THE MOMENT. HOWEVER THIS WEAKENING
IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE HURRICANE TRAVERSES THE
RELATIVELY HIGH HEAT CONTENT OF THE GULF LOOP CURRENT. BEYOND 24
HOURS...THE HEAT CONTENT DECREASES AND MOST MODELS INCREASE THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. IN ADDITION...NONE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING OF GUSTAV...ALTHOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE
SKILL OF THESE MODELS IS RATHER LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE EARLIER ONE...BUT STILL SHOWS GUSTAV
AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.
Sandy ^8^ ,
Looks like we meet again...
How have you been?
It seems Houston has already received a hundred national guard from Austin w/ more on the way if needed.
So it looks better this time than during Rita.
Only the Navy Projections Model shows your area in the path.
Keep watching the news there out of Houston.
I'm sure Evac plans will be implemented if things change.
Stay Safe and let us know how things are going.
Someone will be here to guide you if it goes bad your way.
I know Marylyn stays up on your area's news like a hawk.
Feel free to use me as a contact if it will help ease your mind.
Well for those of us in SE TX it's looking up this morning, we won't have much other than a bit of a Tropical Storm, and for those of us who live here, that's pretty much a walk in the park since we get them often enough. Lufkin area might get more water than we at the coast so hope everyone who went to their cabins are prepaired.
lol guess so, as I said in a previous post I slept through Hurricane Humberto. I only woke up because I was hot. Until I moved here I would have been the same but I've never seen a place that it can rain so hard and so much in a short amount of time. I'll attach a photo of flooding we had a week or so ago from just about 45 min worth of rain. Please excuse the balding guy with a belly, that would be my sexy DH playing in the water.
Updated: I am in Baton Rouge,La to be with my sisters and Mom. I have been under emotioal and stressfull and decided to come here to be with my family. I got here last night from Broussard, La. Traffic was smooth. Police told everyone in New Iberia to be OUT and can't stay.
To again assure you of the strength of this storm...
It is not yet parallel with Tampa, yet our skies are overcast and winds are picking up.
It is hundreds of miles away, but we feel it here.
If you are still considering riding it out...don't.
Thanks for all your concern... didn't mean to detract from the thread. We are all good ~ my four felines hit the woods and I am sure they will all come home with sheepish grins. LOL The dogs, Pod & Ralph are piled up in a/c comfort as we speak.
No storms yet ~ wish the rain would have been here to help smother it. We think electrical. It was my DHs "pouting house". He had a/c, fireplace etc. Tinkered with projects and hobbies and the only thing he can think was plugged in was a battery charger for the rechargable dremel and other tools. Hadn't been out there since Tues. The fire dept was out in full force (most are friends & customers) and responded quickly considering we are 10 miles out. Our primary concern was to keep it from spreading to the surrounding woods. It did burn into our garage next door, ruining saws, drill press, etc. At our age & health, not sure how much we will worry about replacing.
I am one of the more optimistic people you will meet. I don't believe the Lord will give me more than I can handle and I believe everything happens for a reason. Good will come out of everything. No one was hurt, only material possessions lost and when we die, we can't take them with us. DH has wanted a new, larger garage and I think this is his opportunity! What do you think? LOL
My hubby and I don't plan on going anywhere..we are riding out this hurricane...He has to stay around since he works for Centerpoint Energy light company to help out at the warehouse for supplies they need...lets hope that everyone gets to a safe place...
Beginning to rain here in Gulf Shores ... not much wind yet ... just cloudy and overcast; We are about 8 air miles from the beach ... got zapped by Ivan in 2004 ... so we moved off the beach to be a little further inland ... we have reservation at pet friendly Holiday Inn for tomorrow if the weather gets really bad ... we will ride it out about 15 miles inland ... got most of the "keepsakes" ready to throw in the car and go ...
Looks like Gustav is still tracking to Louisiana ... so we may be far enough east to escape the brunt of the surge ...
Pod my DH took care of that for you...he ate all the ice cream earlier today when I was moving all the food into the freezer to fill it up. I also baked some cookies from dough I had in the freezer. It's from a company in Austin called Chippery. Taste really yummy for frozen cookies. Well it seems Gustav is playing with me now, lol I canceled the hotel rooms in Dallas and what does it do??? Moves a bit closer, the sneak! All of you who are starting to get winds and rain, I wish you could see it here...it's a beautiful daya bit breezy, sunny with not a cloud in the sky and so very silent since most of the town is gone.
Silent is good ~ that's what I love here in the woods. I haven't got out the frozen cookie dough (maybe it'll keep) but I am thawing a roast to cook. It will work for cold sandwiches and keep in an ice chest. Lots of frozen water for the ice chest too.
edited to add ~ we just enjoyed a BB ice cream cone but only one. 8 )
I took out a brisket that was smoked a few weeks ago to thaw to have that for sandwiches. I had cooked a ham tonight but for some reason it tasted like it had been frozen to long, even though I had just bought it last week. Headed up to take a long hot shower as everything is done that's going to get done...it's still as calm as can be outside so I think I might relax a bit on the porch after I'm all clean and shiny
Just wanted to say that you are all in my thoughts and prayers as this unfortunate event plays out. May you and your families and friends all be safe during this time and be able to get your life back on track as quickly as possible afterward. I have been there, and will likely be again. My heart goes out to you.
Quoting:THE NEW GUIDANCE RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE HWRF...SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND SINCE IT LIES NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SOME ADDITIONAL SMALL SHIFTS MAY BE NECESSARY LATER. AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE REMAINS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES...SHEAR APART AND STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR FOLLOWS THE SHEAR-APART-AND-STALL SCENARIO...CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS OVER LAND.
Apart from the original hard hit and storm surges as the hurricanes hit land (which are horrible and I am not dismissing), the next worst thing one of these storms can do is stall. We had Allison, which was "just" a tropical storm, caught in loop over the Houston area in 2003, and the flooding was awful. It came in north of here, but didn't get far enough from the Gulf, so the feeder bands kept drawing in more and more and more and more water. Places that NEVER flood, flooded. So keep the people inland in your prayers, too. This storm is going to be a major bugger for several days running.
I was so glad to see today that most people in harms way seem to have evacuated. Here in Brandon (just east of Tampa) we've had cloudy skies,20 to 30 mph winds and rain bands. We've had a substantial amount of rain this summer thank goodness. We drove out to Colorado in late July and western Kansas and Colorado are in a severe drought.
Be as safe as you can be.
I saw today that there are 2 more disturbances behind Hannah.
We'v learned in the 21 years we've been in Florida to be very prepared by this time of year.
Good luck to everyone in the storms path.