Hurricane Gustav

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

Poor Haiti is getting whupped again. Right now Gustav is a level 1 hurricane, but according to NOAA, it is expected to be:

Quoting:
A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE GFDL/HWRF FORECAST SHOW AN EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE. MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTAV WILL BE
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A FEW DAYS.


Gulp. Please be careful, everyone, and keep an eye on this storm! There are three more tropical waves of interest in the Atlantic right now, too.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Thumbnail by Marylyn_TX
So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Okay, WHERE IS PATTI?? "Hang On, Sloopy!"

New Iberia, LA(Zone 9a)

It's not going to be good one!!! It could be Major one! I am living in new mobile home.. with insurance covered! Tomorrow i am going to shopping to get some water and canned foods etc.. to be prepare of ahead of time.

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

Yep.. it's been downgraded to a tropical storm while it's going over the mountains in Haiti, but it's expected to be back to a hurricane after it gets back to open water, and a major hurricane by the time it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

Quoting:
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM EARLIER DUE TO THE INITIAL WEAKENING BUT STILL SHOWS THE STORM BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE LONGER-TERM... THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF UPPER-WIND PATTERNS...BUT IN
GENERAL THE UPPER WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.


Darius, the last time Patti popped into the weather thread, she said she was mostly hanging out on some other weather websites these days as she doesn't garden anymore. I miss her, too.

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So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Marylyn, thanks. I left a message with one of her relatives yesterday... no reply yet. Her daughter's phone number I had is no longer valid.

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

From this morning's Advisory (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/):

Quoting:
GUSTAV HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6
MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS EXPECTED
TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY.


There is another storm in the Atlantic, now a tropical depression, that is expected to be a tropical storm today and a hurricane in 3 days. I'll post a thread for it as soon as it has a name. Please be careful, everyone!!

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So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

It looks like TS Eight will come towards the FL east coast at the same time Gustav comes up the Gulf...

Lutz, FL(Zone 9b)

TD 8 is due to become Hanna

ETsay: TD 8 is now TS Hanna

This message was edited Aug 28, 2008 12:47 PM

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

Quoting:
AFTER THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM JAMAICA...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS...COULD PRODUCE A STRONG HURRICANE VERY QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN CUBA AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AS SOME MODELS SHOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AT THAT TIME. A LARGE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS TROUGH MAY IMPART SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON GUSTAV AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.


Yikes...

Thumbnail by Marylyn_TX
Waaaay Down South, GA

I'm here watching and praying for everyone!
~Susan

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

Gustav is a hurricane again now and is heading towards Cuba - which is still mopping up from Fay. The folks at NOAA aren't sure exactly where the storm is going after that.

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Thanks Marylyn... I missed the 5:00 update.

Cincinnati, OH(Zone 6b)

Hi Gang!
I waited until it was official about Gustav being upgraded before jumping in.....

I have been sending E & DMails and gathering phone #'s for Contact.
Basic Phone Tree stuff that we waited FAR too long to get going last time.
I know between us here now we have a ton of contacts in TX, AR and FL,
not so sure about LA and MS anymore.
I do have JanetOS covered though.

Where's that pesky Members by State site again?

Ric

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

Here it is, Ric: http://davesgarden.com/community/memberlist/

Cincinnati, OH(Zone 6b)

Thanks Marylyn!
As I thought Redrose in LA is the only one I'm familiar w/..... hmmmm.....

Ric

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Maybe Dave will do a new Google map for us, with ID pins? When landfall is more likely known, of course...

Cincinnati, OH(Zone 6b)

That would work Darius.
Much easier than trying to figure it out by zip code.

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

From the 11:00 Update:

Quoting:
THE GFDL REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...WHILE THE UKMET CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN AND LANDFALL ON THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE FINAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES... WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE INTENSITY.


New Iberia, LA(Zone 9a)

Check in.... Lots of people are leaving this town to go safe places... the highway are still flowing bump to bump all way to north... Almost all of gas station are out of gas! I got mine filled up in my truck tonight for last time. I won't use my truck until time for us to leave.
I am packing my clothes, important papers, medicines, dog cage, foods etc.. also water and dried foods/canned foods. We are going to stay at friend house in Broussard, LA.. north of New Iberia.

We are prepare for without electric for a week or so. My both boys are with my ex and stay with him thru the storm.

I will keep you posted over at my friend house by using their internet/laptop.

Cincinnati, OH(Zone 6b)

Good Move!
I think and hope it will be a ghost town down there this time.
If your connections fail call one of us so we know you're OK.

It appears this will be a wild ride for someone.

It looks as if our fearless leaders are actually doing some pre-disaster work THIS TIME.
A State of Emergency has been declared.
This frees up the issuing of evac orders, help organization call ups, supplies and money BEFORE it's needed.
Man what a NOVEL idea!

So far Cat 1 and 80mph.
Animated maps now show a path using LA as the lane.
It looks like the Gulf Water Temps are slightly higher than normal so Cat 1 probably won't hold once Gustav reaches there.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_flashtool.html?extraprod=flashtool#a_topad

Ric

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

Hmmm...

Quoting:
...THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. GUSTAV WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LONGER-TERM...WHICH COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS.


Slow storms are NOT good!

Cincinnati, OH(Zone 6b)

Well she's now a Cat 3
The after landfall projected path is changing to the West a bit.....
So it may be a bit more Rita than Katrina.

Thumbnail by henryr10
So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

11:00 AM Update

Quoting:
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS GUSTAV PASSES NEAR AND OVER WESTERN CUBA. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER GUSTAV REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HANNA...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER, ...STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST... SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW KEEPS HANNA JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED ONCE AGAIN... THAT THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS BELOW ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE.

I'm glad to see some early preparation along the Gulf Coastal areas. It's not going to be pretty, wherever he lands. Hanna may just skate between Cuba and Key West and follow Gustav with a one-two punch.

Lutz, FL(Zone 9b)

Gustav is now a Category 4 with sustained winds of 145 mph

Special update from the NHC at 1:20pm

000
WTNT62 KNHC 301718
TCUAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
120 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 200 PM
EDT TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. THE SPECIAL
PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Waaaay Down South, GA

Praying , praying , PRAYING for all those in this storm's path!!! Please Stay safe, and don't take any chances!
~Susan

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Wowzers! Cat 4 with the probability of increasing... Better bail out now while you can! However, Keep in Touch and/or give someone here a contact number!

Waaaay Down South, GA

I'm available!

Brandon, FL(Zone 9a)

Please everyone, get out if you can....NOW
Don't even consider trying to get through this in a mobile home.
If you stay, be prepared for 3 days of "self reliance"
If you're in a flood zone, leave.
Experienced in Florida,
Susan

Mount Hermon, LA(Zone 8b)

Gustav is now a Category 5. I'm scared.

Auburn, AL(Zone 8a)

Mini & Marylyn this is the site we've been looking at, it's local out of Beaumont but has all the major graphs and charts.

http://www.ih2000.net/ira/bmt-wth.htm

We are as ready as we can be, we've moved things indoors, caulked the windows, food, water, meds are all stocked up we've bought a new generator. After Katrina and Umberto the old one just wasn't up to another storm. We've found and bought this niffty lill 8000 ntu portable A/C that all you have to do is run a hose out a door or crack in a window...and it has wheels! How cool is that *G* During Katrina we only had fans and I was not a happy camper so this time I'm ready. DH is in town as we speak buying the final "man toy" a short barrel remington. I'm not a huge gun fan but law enforcement here told us that being alone in the house with no power, no phones and no alarm last hurricane was just plain stupid.

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

LouisianaSweetPea, you have good reason to be scared after all you have been through before.

Araness, I'm not for guns either, but in some cases, it just makes sense. I have a lot of food stockpiled, and I'm very willing to share it... but not losing it all at gunpoint. Never mind what else the Crazies get into their heads to do...

Cincinnati, OH(Zone 6b)

SweetPea scared is not a bad thing.
I means you're smart enough to see the problem.
But it is still days away.
You are probably not in an area I'd stay in w/ the current projected path.
The path will firm up... then you'll know more.
It is still a CAT 4..... but a WIDE Cat 4.... better safe....

Check your local news for more info.
I know Directv is running an Evac station and has all the updates.

Ric

Auburn, AL(Zone 8a)

Sweet Pea do you have any person you could evac with? If I remember correctly Mount Herman sits right above New Orleans. I-10 is already very busy but so far from what we saw going to and fro this morning (DH is on his way home now) everyone still has gas. Saw several DOT trucks on the road checking on the folks who were on the side of the road. Lets hope this goes off without a hitch

Lutz, FL(Zone 9b)

It's definitely time to have a plan for evacuating. Waiting too long will mean being caught on the road, in a traffic jam along an evacuation route, Not a good idea with a storm of this intensity

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Great map, Stacey! I like how you can move it around and see Hanna as well as Gustav. Thanks.

Auburn, AL(Zone 8a)

LOL I think I saw my house in that Wundermap....rut row this isn't looking good now is it. All kidding aside for those of you in trailers or in flood zones please leave now, remember Hurricane Katrina's winds aren't what did NO in, it was the waters and they aren't any better now than then. I 10 is still open both ways but I expect that to change by in the morning since that is when they have announced they plan a mand evac. For Rita we cut up north to the lakes (Lufkin etc) then across and had lots less traffic.

Brandon, FL(Zone 9a)

There is no such thing as a "minor hurricane". Tropical storm Fay dumped 36 inches of rain in Melbourne Fl., in a little over 24 hours!
Don't panic, just pay attention and be prepared. A generator is worth every cent it cost.( Please use proper ventilation,place it outside)
After Charley went through Arcadia Fl in 04 ( our grandbaby lived there then) there were several signs in yards that stated " Looters will be shot" and they weren't kidding.
Good luck to everyone on the northern gulf coast.
Susan

Lutz, FL(Zone 9b)

From the 5pm advisory:

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL CROSS WESTERN
CUBA TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY.


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

Auburn, AL(Zone 8a)

Sanita water is a major problem here also, as we are one giant swamp. As to the sign, I'll have one up if needed and mean it. That is one of the main reasons we waited so long to buy a gun. My dear sweet gentle DH has problems killing anything and if he had his way we wouldn't eat meat. My rule is if you have a gun be prepaired to shoot to kill, my father taught us all how to fire a gun and WHEN. We never played with them growing up because we understood that they weren't toys. When the DH prepaired himself mentally I was fine with it but having a gun and not the will to use it just puts yourself in more danger IMHO.

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