Tropical Storm Ike

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Quoting:
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1400 MILES...2250 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE LOW SHEAR...IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.


Yet another storm heading straight for Cuba. Youch.

Thumbnail by Marylyn_TX
So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Yeah, the Atlantic is getting busy... 3 more out there besides Hanna and Ike, although 2 look mild. The 3rd is huge already and they think it will get a TS number tonight or tomorrow even though it is not far off the coast of Africa.

Amelia Island, FL(Zone 9a)

Egads....make it stop! LOL!

There are 2 areas with "low potential for tropical cyclones" also...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Thanks, Sharon. Those are what I mentioned above, but a map shows it so much better!

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

Ike's intensity and direction hasn't changed much, and it's too far out for them to have any real idea yet how big it's going to get or where it's going to land. I'd quote from the NOAA page, but they didn't really have a lot to say. LOL Here it is, though, for anyone who wants to look: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Thumbnail by Marylyn_TX
Brandon, FL(Zone 9a)

Ike makes us nervous...AGAIN!!!!
It is so hot and humid here now. I hate to say it, but I hate it here this time of year. I'd give anything for just an evening below 70 degrees!
Susan

Amelia Island, FL(Zone 9a)

Amen Susan! LOL!

It was 79.7* at 6am this morning. :P

Brandon, FL(Zone 9a)

Yep, our low was 77degrees. It was 92 degrees at 10:30 yesterday morning!
YUK!!!!!
I'm sure we have at least another month of this stifling heat and humidity,must be age, but it just zaps me of energy.
Yes, I'm griping!!!
Susan

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Ike has company... Josephine!

Brandon, FL(Zone 9a)

Over it!
Our yard looks beautiful (from inside) tons of butterflies from all we finally successfully raised. Hummingbirds are back.
I'm finishing a book I got for Christmas that I never got to and making a
beef brisket tomorrow. Just running out to the grocery store was miserable. The car finally cools off when you get to where you're going and is a sauna when you get back in.
My DH worked on the pool for 3 hours Friday and the all day rain Saturday voided all his efforts.
I'll be happy again in November (maybe)
Susan

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

5:00

Quoting:
...IKE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1030 MILES ...1655 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IKE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

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Waaaay Down South, GA

Darius ... you're just full of good news. NOT!
~Susan

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Hang On!! From the 11PM Update:

Quoting:
...IKE BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Sorry, forgot to post the map...

Thumbnail by darius
Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

This one's going to be a real stinker.

Quoting:
THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT LAND AREAS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS INTENSIFIED SOME MORE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. IT IS EXPECTED THAT IKE WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR OR CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER...WITH THE EYE EMBEDDED IN EVEN COLDER CLOUD TOPS THAN BEFORE. THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 6.5 WHICH SUPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF 125 KT...AND THIS IS USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY. IN SUCH INTENSE HURRICANES...FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER-CORE EVOLUTIONS SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS OVER 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ON IKE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THIS LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCE SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING... AND THAT IS WHAT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST. LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS PROBABLE AS THE SHEAR WEAKENS AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE BUT IT REFLECTS OUR LACK OF SKILL IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY IN 3-5 DAYS.


In other words, they're not sure yet where this storm is going to be in 3-5 days, but it's going to be dangerous! We'll be watching Ike very closely indeed.

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So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

11:00 AM Update

Quoting:
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

Thumbnail by darius
Cincinnati, OH(Zone 6b)

It appears the islands are going to be taking the brunt of these storms.
Bad for them.... good for us.

We're seeing a bit of Gustav affect up here now.
Muggy and Cloudy... but Breezy now.

Ric

Amelia Island, FL(Zone 9a)

I need to buy a rubber ducky to play with when we start getting all this rain.

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

LOL

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Well, the 5PM Update doesn't have many changes...

Quoting:
...IKE EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD OVERNIGHT....

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES...815
KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

11 PM Update

Quoting:
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
PREDICTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IS
ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST...
WHICH IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IS AGAIN BETWEEN
THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THAT CALLS FOR MORE WEAKENING AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN AN INTENSE HURRICANE. IN ABOUT 2
DAYS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IKE TO
RE-STRENGTHEN.

IT APPEARS THAT IKE HAS TURNED WESTWARD THIS EVENING OR 275/12...
HOWEVER A SHORTER TERM MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY DUE WESTWARD. IKE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS...TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. THEREAFTER...IKE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE TURN TAKE PLACE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE
TURN OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS....WHILE THE HWRF...GFDL...AND
ECMWF TAKE IKE OVER CUBA OR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UNTIL IT
BECOME CLEAR AS TO WHICH ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL PREVAIL...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THEM...CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

Thumbnail by darius
Moab, UT(Zone 6b)

Those poor low lying islands. And to think I used to think that would be paradise.

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

Me, too, Blooms. Last year it seemed like every storm was hitting Bermuda. This year, Hispaniola, Cuba and the Bahamas are getting them all.

Quoting:
...MAJOR HURRICANE IKE HEADED WESTWARD...

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A SLIGHT TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TONIGHT OR EARLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH A TURN BACK TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...IKE COULD BE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT IKE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

IT CANNOT BE SAID ENOUGH THAT FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS
CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE
MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.

Thumbnail by Marylyn_TX
Brandon, FL(Zone 9a)

Oh, we're so tired of this!
Ike is a scary one. I don't think anyone will know what it's going to do until Sunday or Monday.
I sure hope it spares Haiti.
We're always prepared this time of year, but enough already!
Susan

Cincinnati, OH(Zone 6b)

Looks like this one wants to slap Dade County.....
I have a few friends still in Ft L.... guess I'll call and see where or if they're
going anywhere.

Ric

Waaaay Down South, GA

Yeah ... you just can't tell about this one. :-(

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

Quoting:
IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT-TERM AND IKE COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY TOMORROW.

IKE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR VERY NEAR CUBA DURING THE 36-72 HR TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING. THE DEGREE OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW CLOSE IKE TRACKS TO LAND.

BY DAY 4...IKE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE BACK OVER OPEN WATERS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN SHOULD BE PLENTY WARM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR IKE TO RESTRENGTHEN AT 96 AND 120 HR. GIVEN THE EVOLVING ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND LAND INTERACTIONS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE.


Poor Cuba... hit again. Once Ike gets into the Gulf, they aren't sure which way it's going to turn. There's going to be a front moving through... If the front moves quickly, Ike could turn north quickly and hit Florida's panhandle/Alabama/Mississippi/eastern Louisiana. If it moves very slowly, it could come farther west towards western LA, or over towards us. Right now the 5 day map shows it heading towards Mississippi/LA, but as they said above, that's just a guess and they won't know until that front shows up. Keep watching and preparing, everyone!!

Thumbnail by Marylyn_TX
Waaaay Down South, GA

I really don't like that pattern. LOL

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

I don't like it either... 5PM Update:

Quoting:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 949 MB...28.23 INCHES.

WITH
THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER IKE NOW RELAXING AND THE WATERS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK WARM...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL
IKE REACHES CUBA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. ONCE OVER LAND...WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE CYCLONE EMERGES BACK OVER WATER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...ONLY A
SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE
CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER AND LESS WEAKENING COULD OCCUR. SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE DEPARTS CUBA SINCE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.


The attached forecast track is the 5 day track and remember, IT IS STILL IFFY!

Thumbnail by darius
Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

Ugh.. I was hoping it wouldn't strengthen THAT much that fast. :-(

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Well, at least the 8pm update doesn't show additional strengthening...

london England, United Kingdom

Hi everyone!
I have been watching this thread with great interest. My brother is in the Bahamas.
The maps and all the information you are providing is very helpful, Thanks so much.
Stay safe all.

Waaaay Down South, GA

Hi Terri!
Hope your DB will be okay. :) Sending prayers to him ...

Am also sending prayers to anyone else watching this thread in harm's way.
~Susan

london England, United Kingdom

Hi Susan, Thank you.

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

The 11pm update discussion says that all indications are that in 5 days, Ike WILL be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, but more than that is unclear until after Ike hits or skirts Cuba...

Cincinnati, OH(Zone 6b)

Yep FAR too early to get excited yet.
I'm still looking at that Cuba track...
couple of degrees north and Ike could still impact the East Coast not the Gulf.

Ric

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

11:00 AM Update

Quoting:
IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. SINCE THE WATERS OVER THE GULF ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE HIGH... RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.


IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.

Auburn, AL(Zone 8a)

Might want to tie down Marylyn the weather models have it hitting between Houston and Cameron...

Fort Worth, TX(Zone 8a)

Ack! We don't need another hurricane in this part of the Gulf. No one NEEDS a hurricane, but especially since parts of LA, MS, and FL are still recovering from Gustav. Grief!

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Not much new if anything, was posted at the 5PM update. There will be another update shortly, at 8PM, and I'll check it. Really, it looks like they won't know much more until about this time tomorrow (Monday) night. So far though, it looks like someone in the Gulf will get it... maybe in the U.S. and maybe not...

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