Hurricane Ike

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Time for a new thread with a new name. This is continued from here:
http://davesgarden.com/community/forums/t/898547/

Victoria, TX(Zone 9b)

I'm planning to leave. Arrangements are made for myself, horses, dogs, cats.

Blow-ables are stowed best I can around the house.

My nerves are not assembled, however; they're fried.

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

I'm glad you're leaving, AngelSong. Please keep safe, everyone!

Quoting:
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...BUT A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY AND THEN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IKE HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM THE MANY HOURS OF INTERACTION WITH LAND. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS IKE MOVES OVER A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOOP CURRENT AND MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE INTENISITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AND IKE COULD END UP BEING A CATEGORY HIGHER OR LOWER THAN FORECAST.

THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY INLAND. I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR FORECAST TRACK SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THEREAFTER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE MORE SPREAD OUT...BUT THEY ALL BRING THE HURRICANE ASHORE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

Thumbnail by Marylyn_TX
Amelia Island, FL(Zone 9a)

My FIL lives in Rockport. He is a retired AF fighter pilot. He is heading to Kelly AFB tomorrow.

Everyone please be safe.

NE Medina Co., TX(Zone 8a)

Kelly used to be an AFB...now it's privatized, but most of the hurricane evacuees that get to San Antonio check in there. Oh, I was on this tracking site. It is kind of interactive...if you go down below the map, there's forwards/backwards buttons. You can actually move Ike toward the coast in time increments. Haha...playing with the storm! Unfortunately, the real Ike is deadly serious...hoping for the best for everybody on the coast. I see the projections moved back toward Corpus Christi....not good!
http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-ike-2008

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

From the 11:00 discussion:

Quoting:
USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE THREE DAY FORECAST ERROR IS NEARLY 200 MILES...AND THAT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE THREAT IS GIVEN BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY GRAPHICAL AND TEXT PRODUCTS.


Here's the tropical storm wind probability graphic for 96 hours.

Thumbnail by Marylyn_TX
So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

2PM Update

Quoting:
IKE IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


I'm glad to see folks taking precautions...


Amelia Island, FL(Zone 9a)

LindaTX - I heard about Kelly becoming privatized, but figured it's pretty much always going to be known as Kelly AFB to the locals :)

I'm from Houston (Bellaire) and still have a lot of friends there that I went to school with (way back when). They are all packing up and heading out.

Meant to add that's a really neat site!

Here is a satellite link I found:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

This message was edited Sep 10, 2008 6:33 PM

Fort Worth, TX(Zone 8a)

That is a cool site, but when it gets dark, you can no longer see the hurricane. :( I use the infrared one to look at the hurricane after dark.

We're still watching and waiting to see what Ike does once he makes landfall.

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

This is part of the 5PM NOAA Discussion link

Quoting:
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST...THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE AREA.


Y'All stay Safe and Careful, PLEASE!

Cincinnati, OH(Zone 6b)

Now it's firming up a bit.
All of you in the projected areas Be Safe.

During Katrina and Rita phone coverage was spotty at best.
Plus the lines will be jammed w/ people trying to call in.
You May only get one or two calls out.....
Anyone in the area please set up #'s w/ just a few people far outside the area.
let them be your contact for a Phone Tree.
They can get word to Friends and Family...
I'm not being an alarmist....it's just another method of being prepared.
It saves your loved ones a LOT of worry.

I have contact #'s for a few down there.
I or many other's here at Dave's will be happy to pass on messages.
All it takes is a DMAIL....

Hang on Sloopy!
Ric

Moose Jaw, SK(Zone 3b)

Just saw this : http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1079&tstamp=200809

Watch the forecast like an eagle, have you gas tank filled, bags packed and be ready to get the heck out of Dodge (if need be).

Auburn, AL(Zone 8a)

well the 10:00 update came out and it's move even farther east...drats! Made reservations again in Dallas for Fri, Sat and Sun nights, could only get a double so it sounds like they are booked up. I'll ask again when we check in if they have a king or suite as the room gets crowded with two people and a dog if you have nothing to do but stay in the room for three days.

Invista, DH's workplace looks like it will shut down tonight, they called earlier to warn him of it so he went and picked up his laptop and things he'll need to still be able to work.

I'll bag all the frozen stuff in the freezer in black contractor bags in the morning so if we do lose power and are gone clean up will be easy on our return. LOL we DID NOT do this for Rita and the DH still has nightmares about floating chicken.


Auburn, AL(Zone 8a)




This message was edited Sep 10, 2008 10:24 PM

Auburn, AL(Zone 8a)




This message was edited Sep 10, 2008 10:24 PM

This message was edited Sep 10, 2008 10:24 PM

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

Shoot... I just got home from choir practice, and this is NOT the map I wanted to see.

Quoting:
IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

THE CENTER OF IKE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/6...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT VERY RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LAST FIX FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGESTS THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST COULD BE STARTING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD.
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY INDUCE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL OCCUR. THE HWRF IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND FORECASTS A STRONGER AND LONGER-LASTING RIDGE THAT TAKES IKE INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE TURNING NORTH. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL IS THE RIGHTMOST MODEL WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THAT ALLOWS IKE TO TURN INTO THE GALVESTON AREA. THE OTHER MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...AS IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST....WHICH IS NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED.
SINCE THE TIMING OF THE TURN BEFORE LANDFALL IS SO UNCERTAIN AND SO KEY IN WHERE THE CORE OF IKE COMES ASHORE...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND NOT GOING IN A STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK. EVERYONE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA HAS ABOUT THE SAME RISK OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS.



We already knew that we were going to be on the "dirty" side of the storm, and regardless of where it landed, we were going to get wet and have at least tropical strength winds. If it hits Galveston dead on as a cat 3 or 4, Houston is in big trouble. We are not in the parts of Houston that will be evacuated - actually for the people in our part of town, they have asked us NOT to evacuate unless the neighborhood we are in is likely to flood - and ours does not flood. Traffic is going to be bad enough without us leaving, too.

Houston is not in the sort of danger that New Orleans would be in... we are not below sea level and have no levees. We do have bayous that run all through the city and are apt to flood in times of lots of rain (like Tropical Storm Allison which camped over Houston for multiple days in 2003.) Mostly what we have is lots and lots and lots of people. Houston is the 4th largest city in the US.

If the storm does hit us dead on, we will probably go to my dh's sister's house in The Woodlands (taking the backroads), about 50 miles north. We're not worried about storm surges or flooding, but we have huge trees all around the house and would like to NOT be inside if one of them just happened to fall.

Sharon, Ric, I01, and Silverfluter have our phone numbers and etc. :-)

Thumbnail by Marylyn_TX
So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Wow, I just read the 11PM Update, and here's an additional comment besides what Marilyn posted above:

Quoting:
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADILY FALLING...NOW DOWN TO ABOUT
944 MB (27.88 in.)


I was born and raised in hurricane country, and low pressures are something for serious consideration. Only 3 hurricanes with pressures below 940 mbar have hit south Florida since 1900. The 1926 Miami Hurricane, the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane, and Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The 1928 hurricane had a low pressure of 27.76in.

Ike still has a LOT of opportunity to lose strength, so let's all put out positive energy for that to happen. But, evac. if you are in harm's way (wherever that turns out to be) if you can. Most importantly, stay safe!

Fort Worth, TX(Zone 8a)

If it hits Galveston as a Cat 3, 4 or a 5 (yikes!), the storm surge could potentially top the seawall and flood south Houston. That would be absolutely horrible. I really hope Ike loses some of his strength, but I'm afraid he'll only grow stronger.

Last night on the weather segment, the meteorologist said that the cloud cover is 800 miles wide. That's humongous! Almost as big as the entire state of Texas!

Baytown, TX(Zone 9b)

I understand there will be no one to help and even so it does not change the money. I think Misty has me number and just gave it to Henry in D-mail. Looks like it will be rough to say the lease. They are calling for mandatory evac here for all of chambers Co but I have no money to leave and 1/4 tank of gas. Looks like it will hit and we will be on the bad side. I can't worry (yeah right who am I trying to fool?) as nothing I can do. Also not good for a woman alone to leave with no where to go. Would not be good.

Going to wash clothes and gather up candles. Hope the store has Ice as I have a 10 to get some to help freezer if no electricity. Have an old smokey and no charcoal. Probably none to be found. Oh well I will try to freeze some milk jugs and tea jugs. Anything I can find.

Blessings,

Sandy ^8^

Fort Worth, TX(Zone 8a)

Sandy, aren't they providing transportation out? You should check into that. If you have pets, you can bring them along.

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

Not much change this morning...

Quoting:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND IT COULD INTENSIFY INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM.

THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO TEXAS. DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL WEAKEN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND THIS
WOULD CAUSE IKE TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW SOON AND HOW SHARP OF A TURN WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF OUR MOST RELIABLE TRACK FORECAST MODELS IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEREFORE I HAVE MADE ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS BETWEEN THE LATEST HWRF RUN...WHICH IS TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN....WHICH IS TO THE RIGHT. IN THIS CASE IT IS
PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DAMAGING WINDS EXTEND SO FAR FROM THE CENTER.

THE EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND FIELD OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT NECESSITATES AN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING A LITTLE FATHER NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

Thumbnail by Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

Sandy, not all of Chambers County is under mandatory evac:

Quoting:
A mandatory evacuation is ordered at 10:00 a.m., Thursday, September 11, 2008 which includes: all low-lying areas including the communities of Smith Point, Oak Island, Cedar Point, Walker Subdivision, and all areas south of 1985. Citizens should also consider evacuation if they live in other low-lying areas subject to flooding or in unanchored mobile homes or RV's. All others should plan on sheltering in place.


If you are in one of the areas named, you can call 211 and they will come and get you.

Moose Jaw, SK(Zone 3b)

re what StephanieTx had posted above: Here's a map showing what the storm surge could be *if* Ike hits category 4 (and if there is a high tide at the time of impact) and if it comes in at the right angle (etc).

Figure 2. The maximum storm tide (storm surge plus an adjustment for hitting at high tide) expected from a mid-strength (145 mph) Category 4 hurricane hitting anywhere along the coast of Texas at high tide. This so-called "MOM" (Maximum Of the Maximum Envelope Of Waters) is computed using NOAA's SLOSH storm surge model. The plot below IS NOT the expected storm tide everywhere along the coast from a hit by Hurricane Ike. The plot is the MAXIMUM high water for a worst-case scenario Category 4 hurricane moving at the worst possible angle at the worst possible forward speed. As such, this plot is the combination of SLOSH runs from over 50 different simulated hurricanes approaching the coast at different angles and different forward speeds. The maximums plotted here are only possible along a 20-mile stretch of the coast on the north side of Ike's eyewall. SLOSH model runs are advertised as being in error by plus or minus 20%. Image credit: NOAA. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1079&tstamp=200809

Thumbnail by Lilypon
Baytown, TX(Zone 9b)

This has zip codes manditory to evacuate. Good site.

http://www.hcoem.org/HCMap.aspx?P=Evacuation

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

So have you called 211 yet?

Auburn, AL(Zone 8a)

Orange called for mandatory evacuation as of 6:00 a.m. We are going to wait till around 4:00 to decide to leave or not.

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

Quoting:
...IKE CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE BUT HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES... 930 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES ...760 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NEAR LANDFALL RANGES FROM A CATEGORY FOUR FROM THE GFDL TO CATEGORY TWO FROM THE SHIPS MODEL...ABOUT THE ERROR ONE CAN EXPECT FROM AN OFFICIAL
FORECAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE GUIDANCE MODELS...AND ANTICIPATES THAT IKE WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

Thumbnail by Marylyn_TX
So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Marylyn, do you read the Discussion threads as well as the Public Advisories on NOAA? I found it interesting in the 11 am discussion that they said there is a definite anomoly with the low minimal pressure and only Cat 2 winds. I hope Ike doesn't shift any farther eastward...

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

Yes, I read that, too. I like the discussion page - especially when either Dr. Avila or Dr. Franklin are on duty. My mom was reading a page that she found while she was on the phone with me (Mom: "I hear they're evacuating all of Houston!!!" Me: "Umm.. no. Just the parts near the coast. We're in the don't-evacuate-we-don't-want-you-clogging-up-the-roads part of town." Mom: "Are you SURE??" Me: "Yes, we're fine." She's in Ohio. ^_^ ) Anyway, her page said that the winds are probably higher farther in. The recon aircraft can't go all the way in, and the storm is SOOO big! So they probably aren't getting a very accurate picture. Also they ("they"= the folks at whatever page this was... Mom didn't say) were expecting the winds to pick up to match the pressure. In the meantime, there are already huge tides coming in all along the shore, and the storm is still a LONG way out. They just announced that our school district will be closed tomorrow.

NE Medina Co., TX(Zone 8a)

We ran into this kind of thing with the last hurricane. There were people who spent all their money getting out and driving long distances to a safe place that would accept them...those who even had that much. Remember, not everybody has a lot of money saved up, especially these days with the iffy economy and skyrocketing prices. Afterward, the shelters told them they'd have to leave, that the shelters were closing. And some had no money to get home. After some publicity about it, a big company donated gas cards for those who had driven there and needed help. But I would hope someone in the area will step forward to help Sandy when the time comes. If it's going to be bad, a person shouldn't have to ride out something like that alone in their house. I'll pray for you, Sandy. I hope it turns away or is less dangerous than they're talking about. I have relatives that might have to evacuate, including DD and her family. Got to check that site! Thanks for posting it.

So.App.Mtns., United States(Zone 5b)

Yeah Linda, evac is a 2 edged sword if you are poor, and sometimes even if you aren't. I drove 25 miles up the highway last night and gassed up my truck and all my 5 gallon gas cans... 26 a gallon cheaper than this small burg. Expectations are that gas to skyrocket with Ike. I'm hoping it is enough gas to see me through the month since I don't go much of anywhere lately.

Marylyn, you are doing a great job of keeping everyone informed. Thanks! I hope the winds don't increase to match the pressure... All the low pressure/high wind storms have been killers.

New Iberia, LA(Zone 9a)

I can feel IKE's being close.. Windy have picked up.... windy and windy...

Victoria, TX(Zone 9b)

If they say evacuate, GO! There are multiple buses at stations waiting to haul you out, and a phone # to call if you can't get to the station.

Don't sit in the storm, holed up in the house, expecting somebody to come rescue you later, "because it's too hard to leave". That's baloney. Try to think back, to all the bodies they found after Katrina - You want to be one of them?

Many things I can understand, but being in the bulls eye of a Possible Cat 3 or 4 storm, and sitting at home, ignoring the warnings to scram... That I can't understand.

Cincinnati, OH(Zone 6b)

Does anyone have the TX Evac #'s handy or a link?

Please post them....

Ric

Auburn, AL(Zone 8a)

So many died during Katrina because of the flooding, the flooding happened because of the low level and the levies. Houston is not in the same situation. It's a beautiful day here, no winds out of the norm, haven't driven down to port yet to see the water but yesterday it was a bit choppy.

I think it's important to hed warnings also, but I also think common sense must be put in play. Take Orange for example, they called for mandatory evacuation at 6:15 am this morning we are 100 miles out from Houston (straight line) and about 60 miles north of Galveston. At this strength Ike's hurricane winds will extend outward for 105 miles (keep in mind that they lessen with distance) and tropical storm winds extend up to 205 miles. With that information that puts Orange in at the worst a Cat 1 hurricane or tropical storm. Neither of which is reason to evacuate.

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

I'm not sure this is exactly what you're looking for, Ric, but here is the list of the Houston area closings: http://blogs.chron.com/closings/

Houston area evacuations: http://blogs.chron.com/hurricanes/evacuations/

(The "Houston area" covers multiple counties and several millions of people.)

If you scroll down this page (http://www.hcoem.org/) and click on "Evacuation Map (pdf)" you can see a map of the areas that will always be evacuated in storms like this. So far they are evacuating the Coastal, A, & B regions. I haven't heard anything about C. We, personally, are in the "white" area and they don't want us to go anywhere.

General good info: http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/preparedness/hurricanes.shtm



Victoria, TX(Zone 9b)

I'm listening to a City of Houston live press conference now. They're being pretty darn blunt - If we've told you to go, GET. If we've asked you to stay, please stay put, at least until further notice. Free up the roads for inland folks that need out. If you can't get out, or don't have a place to go, call 3-1-1. Don't go to the Emergency Room of your hospital to be evac'd - That's just going to delay getting you out.

Maybe the evac isn't necessary. What I don't want to hear after the fact is "I called 911 for help, and nobody came." Or, "I can't get electricity, and no phones, and nobody's taking care of me."

Just because you don't want to run, don't expect the county & city officials to stick around to take care of you. Those emergency service folks want to get to safety, too.

The storm is HUGE. They're expecting it to strengthen. They are evacuating early to get you out BEFORE there are Cat 2 & Cat 3 winds tearing up the roadways.

Gas & Hotel bills are much cheaper than losing a family member, or being miserable without food, water, fuel, or having water & wind blowing in the house ....

Auburn, AL(Zone 8a)

I haven't nor do I expect them to, I was here during Rita and had no phone, no power, potable water zilch for a month. I by no means think that people who are in areas that will flood etc need to stay, what I'm saying is use common sense. If I was on the westward side of this storm by 100 miles or so I wouldn't evacuate, unless I had a medical reason too. If Houston, which is much closer to the eye of the storm isn't evacuating everyone I don't think I'm in serious danger.

NE Medina Co., TX(Zone 8a)

My brother, wife and two grown daughters are packing up and leaving today...they live in Angleton...too close to the coast, mandatory evac order issued. Hopefully there were provisions made for those who can't afford the gas and motel/hotel bills.

Houston, TX(Zone 9a)

Oh, yes.. If they call 311 or 211, they will be picked up by the evac buses. Everyone who chooses to leave will be helped to leave. :-)

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