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Weather: Hurricane Ike

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darius

darius
So.App.Mtns.
United States
(Zone 5b)

September 10, 2008
12:54 PM

Post #5533124

Time for a new thread with a new name. This is continued from here:
http://davesgarden.com/community/forums/t/898547/
AngelSong
Victoria, TX
(Zone 9b)

September 10, 2008
12:58 PM

Post #5533145

I'm planning to leave. Arrangements are made for myself, horses, dogs, cats.

Blow-ables are stowed best I can around the house.

My nerves are not assembled, however; they're fried.
Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 10, 2008
1:18 PM

Post #5533243

I'm glad you're leaving, AngelSong. Please keep safe, everyone!

Quoting:IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...BUT A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY AND THEN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IKE HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM THE MANY HOURS OF INTERACTION WITH LAND. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS IKE MOVES OVER A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOOP CURRENT AND MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE INTENISITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AND IKE COULD END UP BEING A CATEGORY HIGHER OR LOWER THAN FORECAST.

THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY INLAND. I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR FORECAST TRACK SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THEREAFTER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE MORE SPREAD OUT...BUT THEY ALL BRING THE HURRICANE ASHORE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

Thumbnail by Marylyn_TX
Click the image for an enlarged view.

MySharona
Amelia Island, FL
(Zone 9a)

September 10, 2008
1:52 PM

Post #5533384

My FIL lives in Rockport. He is a retired AF fighter pilot. He is heading to Kelly AFB tomorrow.

Everyone please be safe.
LindaTX8
NE Medina Co., TX
(Zone 8a)

September 10, 2008
2:50 PM

Post #5533622

Kelly used to be an AFB...now it's privatized, but most of the hurricane evacuees that get to San Antonio check in there. Oh, I was on this tracking site. It is kind of interactive...if you go down below the map, there's forwards/backwards buttons. You can actually move Ike toward the coast in time increments. Haha...playing with the storm! Unfortunately, the real Ike is deadly serious...hoping for the best for everybody on the coast. I see the projections moved back toward Corpus Christi...not good!
http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-ike-2008
Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 10, 2008
3:23 PM

Post #5533756

From the 11:00 discussion:
Quoting:USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE THREE DAY FORECAST ERROR IS NEARLY 200 MILES...AND THAT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE THREAT IS GIVEN BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY GRAPHICAL AND TEXT PRODUCTS.


Here's the tropical storm wind probability graphic for 96 hours.

Thumbnail by Marylyn_TX
Click the image for an enlarged view.

darius

darius
So.App.Mtns.
United States
(Zone 5b)

September 10, 2008
6:59 PM

Post #5534733

2PM Update
Quoting:IKE IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


I'm glad to see folks taking precautions...


MySharona
Amelia Island, FL
(Zone 9a)

September 10, 2008
7:27 PM

Post #5534837

LindaTX - I heard about Kelly becoming privatized, but figured it's pretty much always going to be known as Kelly AFB to the locals :)

I'm from Houston (Bellaire) and still have a lot of friends there that I went to school with (way back when). They are all packing up and heading out.

Meant to add that's a really neat site!

Here is a satellite link I found:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

This message was edited Sep 10, 2008 6:33 PM

stephanietx

stephanietx
Fort Worth, TX
(Zone 8a)

September 10, 2008
10:53 PM

Post #5535629

That is a cool site, but when it gets dark, you can no longer see the hurricane. :( I use the infrared one to look at the hurricane after dark.

We're still watching and waiting to see what Ike does once he makes landfall.

darius

darius
So.App.Mtns.
United States
(Zone 5b)

September 11, 2008
12:12 AM

Post #5535988

This is part of the 5PM NOAA Discussion link
Quoting:REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST...THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE AREA.


Y'All stay Safe and Careful, PLEASE!
henryr10
Cincinnati, OH
(Zone 6b)

September 11, 2008
12:51 AM

Post #5536153

Now it's firming up a bit.
All of you in the projected areas Be Safe.

During Katrina and Rita phone coverage was spotty at best.
Plus the lines will be jammed w/ people trying to call in.
You May only get one or two calls out...
Anyone in the area please set up #'s w/ just a few people far outside the area.
let them be your contact for a Phone Tree.
They can get word to Friends and Family...
I'm not being an alarmist...it's just another method of being prepared.
It saves your loved ones a LOT of worry.

I have contact #'s for a few down there.
I or many other's here at Dave's will be happy to pass on messages.
All it takes is a DMAIL...

Hang on Sloopy!
Ric

Lilypon

Lilypon
Moose Jaw, SK
(Zone 3b)

September 11, 2008
2:56 AM

Post #5536786

Just saw this : http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1079&tstamp=200809

Watch the forecast like an eagle, have you gas tank filled, bags packed and be ready to get the heck out of Dodge (if need be).
araness
Auburn, AL
(Zone 8a)

September 11, 2008
3:17 AM

Post #5536864

well the 10:00 update came out and it's move even farther east...drats! Made reservations again in Dallas for Fri, Sat and Sun nights, could only get a double so it sounds like they are booked up. I'll ask again when we check in if they have a king or suite as the room gets crowded with two people and a dog if you have nothing to do but stay in the room for three days.

Invista, DH's workplace looks like it will shut down tonight, they called earlier to warn him of it so he went and picked up his laptop and things he'll need to still be able to work.

I'll bag all the frozen stuff in the freezer in black contractor bags in the morning so if we do lose power and are gone clean up will be easy on our return. LOL we DID NOT do this for Rita and the DH still has nightmares about floating chicken.


araness
Auburn, AL
(Zone 8a)

September 11, 2008
3:17 AM

Post #5536866




This message was edited Sep 10, 2008 10:24 PM
araness
Auburn, AL
(Zone 8a)

September 11, 2008
3:17 AM

Post #5536871




This message was edited Sep 10, 2008 10:24 PM

This message was edited Sep 10, 2008 10:24 PM
Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 11, 2008
3:29 AM

Post #5536912

Shoot... I just got home from choir practice, and this is NOT the map I wanted to see.

Quoting: IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

THE CENTER OF IKE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/6...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT VERY RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LAST FIX FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGESTS THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST COULD BE STARTING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD.
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY INDUCE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL OCCUR. THE HWRF IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND FORECASTS A STRONGER AND LONGER-LASTING RIDGE THAT TAKES IKE INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE TURNING NORTH. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL IS THE RIGHTMOST MODEL WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THAT ALLOWS IKE TO TURN INTO THE GALVESTON AREA. THE OTHER MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...AS IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED.
SINCE THE TIMING OF THE TURN BEFORE LANDFALL IS SO UNCERTAIN AND SO KEY IN WHERE THE CORE OF IKE COMES ASHORE...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND NOT GOING IN A STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK. EVERYONE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA HAS ABOUT THE SAME RISK OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS.



We already knew that we were going to be on the "dirty" side of the storm, and regardless of where it landed, we were going to get wet and have at least tropical strength winds. If it hits Galveston dead on as a cat 3 or 4, Houston is in big trouble. We are not in the parts of Houston that will be evacuated - actually for the people in our part of town, they have asked us NOT to evacuate unless the neighborhood we are in is likely to flood - and ours does not flood. Traffic is going to be bad enough without us leaving, too.

Houston is not in the sort of danger that New Orleans would be in... we are not below sea level and have no levees. We do have bayous that run all through the city and are apt to flood in times of lots of rain (like Tropical Storm Allison which camped over Houston for multiple days in 2003.) Mostly what we have is lots and lots and lots of people. Houston is the 4th largest city in the US.

If the storm does hit us dead on, we will probably go to my dh's sister's house in The Woodlands (taking the backroads), about 50 miles north. We're not worried about storm surges or flooding, but we have huge trees all around the house and would like to NOT be inside if one of them just happened to fall.

Sharon, Ric, I01, and Silverfluter have our phone numbers and etc. :-)

Thumbnail by Marylyn_TX
Click the image for an enlarged view.

darius

darius
So.App.Mtns.
United States
(Zone 5b)

September 11, 2008
5:32 AM

Post #5537194

Wow, I just read the 11PM Update, and here's an additional comment besides what Marilyn posted above:
Quoting:THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADILY FALLING...NOW DOWN TO ABOUT
944 MB (27.88 in.)


I was born and raised in hurricane country, and low pressures are something for serious consideration. Only 3 hurricanes with pressures below 940 mbar have hit south Florida since 1900. The 1926 Miami Hurricane, the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane, and Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The 1928 hurricane had a low pressure of 27.76in.

Ike still has a LOT of opportunity to lose strength, so let's all put out positive energy for that to happen. But, evac. if you are in harm's way (wherever that turns out to be) if you can. Most importantly, stay safe!

stephanietx

stephanietx
Fort Worth, TX
(Zone 8a)

September 11, 2008
11:06 AM

Post #5537471

If it hits Galveston as a Cat 3, 4 or a 5 (yikes!), the storm surge could potentially top the seawall and flood south Houston. That would be absolutely horrible. I really hope Ike loses some of his strength, but I'm afraid he'll only grow stronger.

Last night on the weather segment, the meteorologist said that the cloud cover is 800 miles wide. That's humongous! Almost as big as the entire state of Texas!

ilovejesus99
Baytown, TX
(Zone 9b)

September 11, 2008
11:08 AM

Post #5537472

I understand there will be no one to help and even so it does not change the money. I think Misty has me number and just gave it to Henry in D-mail. Looks like it will be rough to say the lease. They are calling for mandatory evac here for all of chambers Co but I have no money to leave and 1/4 tank of gas. Looks like it will hit and we will be on the bad side. I can't worry (yeah right who am I trying to fool?) as nothing I can do. Also not good for a woman alone to leave with no where to go. Would not be good.

Going to wash clothes and gather up candles. Hope the store has Ice as I have a 10 to get some to help freezer if no electricity. Have an old smokey and no charcoal. Probably none to be found. Oh well I will try to freeze some milk jugs and tea jugs. Anything I can find.

Blessings,

Sandy ^8^

stephanietx

stephanietx
Fort Worth, TX
(Zone 8a)

September 11, 2008
11:12 AM

Post #5537480

Sandy, aren't they providing transportation out? You should check into that. If you have pets, you can bring them along.

Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 11, 2008
12:06 PM

Post #5537579

Not much change this morning...

Quoting:MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND IT COULD INTENSIFY INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM.

THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO TEXAS. DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL WEAKEN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND THIS
WOULD CAUSE IKE TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW SOON AND HOW SHARP OF A TURN WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF OUR MOST RELIABLE TRACK FORECAST MODELS IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEREFORE I HAVE MADE ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS BETWEEN THE LATEST HWRF RUN...WHICH IS TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN...WHICH IS TO THE RIGHT. IN THIS CASE IT IS
PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DAMAGING WINDS EXTEND SO FAR FROM THE CENTER.

THE EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND FIELD OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT NECESSITATES AN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING A LITTLE FATHER NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

Thumbnail by Marylyn_TX
Click the image for an enlarged view.

Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 11, 2008
12:07 PM

Post #5537582

Sandy, not all of Chambers County is under mandatory evac:
Quoting:A mandatory evacuation is ordered at 10:00 a.m., Thursday, September 11, 2008 which includes: all low-lying areas including the communities of Smith Point, Oak Island, Cedar Point, Walker Subdivision, and all areas south of 1985. Citizens should also consider evacuation if they live in other low-lying areas subject to flooding or in unanchored mobile homes or RV's. All others should plan on sheltering in place.


If you are in one of the areas named, you can call 211 and they will come and get you.

Lilypon

Lilypon
Moose Jaw, SK
(Zone 3b)

September 11, 2008
1:16 PM

Post #5537811

re what StephanieTx had posted above: Here's a map showing what the storm surge could be *if* Ike hits category 4 (and if there is a high tide at the time of impact) and if it comes in at the right angle (etc).

Figure 2. The maximum storm tide (storm surge plus an adjustment for hitting at high tide) expected from a mid-strength (145 mph) Category 4 hurricane hitting anywhere along the coast of Texas at high tide. This so-called "MOM" (Maximum Of the Maximum Envelope Of Waters) is computed using NOAA's SLOSH storm surge model. The plot below IS NOT the expected storm tide everywhere along the coast from a hit by Hurricane Ike. The plot is the MAXIMUM high water for a worst-case scenario Category 4 hurricane moving at the worst possible angle at the worst possible forward speed. As such, this plot is the combination of SLOSH runs from over 50 different simulated hurricanes approaching the coast at different angles and different forward speeds. The maximums plotted here are only possible along a 20-mile stretch of the coast on the north side of Ike's eyewall. SLOSH model runs are advertised as being in error by plus or minus 20%. Image credit: NOAA. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1079&tstamp=200809

Thumbnail by Lilypon
Click the image for an enlarged view.

ilovejesus99
Baytown, TX
(Zone 9b)

September 11, 2008
1:34 PM

Post #5537896

This has zip codes manditory to evacuate. Good site.

http://www.hcoem.org/HCMap.aspx?P=Evacuation
Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 11, 2008
1:39 PM

Post #5537925

So have you called 211 yet?
araness
Auburn, AL
(Zone 8a)

September 11, 2008
3:03 PM

Post #5538340

Orange called for mandatory evacuation as of 6:00 a.m. We are going to wait till around 4:00 to decide to leave or not.
Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 11, 2008
3:21 PM

Post #5538442

Quoting:...IKE CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE BUT HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES... 930 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES ...760 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NEAR LANDFALL RANGES FROM A CATEGORY FOUR FROM THE GFDL TO CATEGORY TWO FROM THE SHIPS MODEL...ABOUT THE ERROR ONE CAN EXPECT FROM AN OFFICIAL
FORECAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE GUIDANCE MODELS...AND ANTICIPATES THAT IKE WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

Thumbnail by Marylyn_TX
Click the image for an enlarged view.

darius

darius
So.App.Mtns.
United States
(Zone 5b)

September 11, 2008
3:25 PM

Post #5538459

Marylyn, do you read the Discussion threads as well as the Public Advisories on NOAA? I found it interesting in the 11 am discussion that they said there is a definite anomoly with the low minimal pressure and only Cat 2 winds. I hope Ike doesn't shift any farther eastward...
Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 11, 2008
3:34 PM

Post #5538496

Yes, I read that, too. I like the discussion page - especially when either Dr. Avila or Dr. Franklin are on duty. My mom was reading a page that she found while she was on the phone with me (Mom: "I hear they're evacuating all of Houston!!!" Me: "Umm.. no. Just the parts near the coast. We're in the don't-evacuate-we-don't-want-you-clogging-up-the-roads part of town." Mom: "Are you SURE??" Me: "Yes, we're fine." She's in Ohio. :-) ) Anyway, her page said that the winds are probably higher farther in. The recon aircraft can't go all the way in, and the storm is SOOO big! So they probably aren't getting a very accurate picture. Also they ("they"= the folks at whatever page this was... Mom didn't say) were expecting the winds to pick up to match the pressure. In the meantime, there are already huge tides coming in all along the shore, and the storm is still a LONG way out. They just announced that our school district will be closed tomorrow.
LindaTX8
NE Medina Co., TX
(Zone 8a)

September 11, 2008
3:40 PM

Post #5538520

We ran into this kind of thing with the last hurricane. There were people who spent all their money getting out and driving long distances to a safe place that would accept them...those who even had that much. Remember, not everybody has a lot of money saved up, especially these days with the iffy economy and skyrocketing prices. Afterward, the shelters told them they'd have to leave, that the shelters were closing. And some had no money to get home. After some publicity about it, a big company donated gas cards for those who had driven there and needed help. But I would hope someone in the area will step forward to help Sandy when the time comes. If it's going to be bad, a person shouldn't have to ride out something like that alone in their house. I'll pray for you, Sandy. I hope it turns away or is less dangerous than they're talking about. I have relatives that might have to evacuate, including DD and her family. Got to check that site! Thanks for posting it.

darius

darius
So.App.Mtns.
United States
(Zone 5b)

September 11, 2008
3:52 PM

Post #5538576

Yeah Linda, evac is a 2 edged sword if you are poor, and sometimes even if you aren't. I drove 25 miles up the highway last night and gassed up my truck and all my 5 gallon gas cans... 26¢ a gallon cheaper than this small burg. Expectations are that gas to skyrocket with Ike. I'm hoping it is enough gas to see me through the month since I don't go much of anywhere lately.

Marylyn, you are doing a great job of keeping everyone informed. Thanks! I hope the winds don't increase to match the pressure... All the low pressure/high wind storms have been killers.
MiniSchnuz
New Iberia, LA
(Zone 9a)

September 11, 2008
3:53 PM

Post #5538583

I can feel IKE's being close.. Windy have picked up... windy and windy...
AngelSong
Victoria, TX
(Zone 9b)

September 11, 2008
4:43 PM

Post #5538779

If they say evacuate, GO! There are multiple buses at stations waiting to haul you out, and a phone # to call if you can't get to the station.

Don't sit in the storm, holed up in the house, expecting somebody to come rescue you later, "because it's too hard to leave". That's baloney. Try to think back, to all the bodies they found after Katrina - You want to be one of them?

Many things I can understand, but being in the bulls eye of a Possible Cat 3 or 4 storm, and sitting at home, ignoring the warnings to scram... That I can't understand.

henryr10
Cincinnati, OH
(Zone 6b)

September 11, 2008
5:01 PM

Post #5538846

Does anyone have the TX Evac #'s handy or a link?

Please post them...

Ric
araness
Auburn, AL
(Zone 8a)

September 11, 2008
5:16 PM

Post #5538894

So many died during Katrina because of the flooding, the flooding happened because of the low level and the levies. Houston is not in the same situation. It's a beautiful day here, no winds out of the norm, haven't driven down to port yet to see the water but yesterday it was a bit choppy.

I think it's important to hed warnings also, but I also think common sense must be put in play. Take Orange for example, they called for mandatory evacuation at 6:15 am this morning we are 100 miles out from Houston (straight line) and about 60 miles north of Galveston. At this strength Ike's hurricane winds will extend outward for 105 miles (keep in mind that they lessen with distance) and tropical storm winds extend up to 205 miles. With that information that puts Orange in at the worst a Cat 1 hurricane or tropical storm. Neither of which is reason to evacuate.
Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 11, 2008
5:20 PM

Post #5538916

I'm not sure this is exactly what you're looking for, Ric, but here is the list of the Houston area closings: http://blogs.chron.com/closings/

Houston area evacuations: http://blogs.chron.com/hurricanes/evacuations/

(The "Houston area" covers multiple counties and several millions of people.)

If you scroll down this page (http://www.hcoem.org/) and click on "Evacuation Map (pdf)" you can see a map of the areas that will always be evacuated in storms like this. So far they are evacuating the Coastal, A, & B regions. I haven't heard anything about C. We, personally, are in the "white" area and they don't want us to go anywhere.

General good info: http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/preparedness/hurricanes.shtm



AngelSong
Victoria, TX
(Zone 9b)

September 11, 2008
5:50 PM

Post #5539042

I'm listening to a City of Houston live press conference now. They're being pretty darn blunt - If we've told you to go, GET. If we've asked you to stay, please stay put, at least until further notice. Free up the roads for inland folks that need out. If you can't get out, or don't have a place to go, call 3-1-1. Don't go to the Emergency Room of your hospital to be evac'd - That's just going to delay getting you out.

Maybe the evac isn't necessary. What I don't want to hear after the fact is "I called 911 for help, and nobody came." Or, "I can't get electricity, and no phones, and nobody's taking care of me."

Just because you don't want to run, don't expect the county & city officials to stick around to take care of you. Those emergency service folks want to get to safety, too.

The storm is HUGE. They're expecting it to strengthen. They are evacuating early to get you out BEFORE there are Cat 2 & Cat 3 winds tearing up the roadways.

Gas & Hotel bills are much cheaper than losing a family member, or being miserable without food, water, fuel, or having water & wind blowing in the house ...
araness
Auburn, AL
(Zone 8a)

September 11, 2008
7:02 PM

Post #5539299

I haven't nor do I expect them to, I was here during Rita and had no phone, no power, potable water zilch for a month. I by no means think that people who are in areas that will flood etc need to stay, what I'm saying is use common sense. If I was on the westward side of this storm by 100 miles or so I wouldn't evacuate, unless I had a medical reason too. If Houston, which is much closer to the eye of the storm isn't evacuating everyone I don't think I'm in serious danger.
LindaTX8
NE Medina Co., TX
(Zone 8a)

September 11, 2008
7:25 PM

Post #5539367

My brother, wife and two grown daughters are packing up and leaving today...they live in Angleton...too close to the coast, mandatory evac order issued. Hopefully there were provisions made for those who can't afford the gas and motel/hotel bills.
Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 11, 2008
7:36 PM

Post #5539394

Oh, yes.. If they call 311 or 211, they will be picked up by the evac buses. Everyone who chooses to leave will be helped to leave. :-)
AngelSong
Victoria, TX
(Zone 9b)

September 11, 2008
7:36 PM

Post #5539395

LindaTX8 - They have. There are numbers in each city you can call to get on the "Evac List".

It won't be a night in the top 4-star hotel, but probably a public shelter. Still, a shelter out of town is better than sitting on the roof of your home, hoping somebody will fly by & rescue you.
araness
Auburn, AL
(Zone 8a)

September 11, 2008
7:45 PM

Post #5539457

Marylyn your from the Houston area is Spring being asked to leave? My niece and her husband live in Spring but both are pilots and flying for the next three days. Since they fly for different companies (he's a private pilot) I don't think they will be together.

DH just came in from sealing the windows..lol I so do not want to see how he's getting this stuff off.
Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 11, 2008
7:51 PM

Post #5539480

Spring has not been asked to leave.
Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 11, 2008
9:01 PM

Post #5539767

Ike is still a 2.

Quoting:.THE MINIMUM PRESSURE ROSE TO ABOUT 954 MB...BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN TO 950 MB.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SINCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL STILL MAKES IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. FACTORS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE THE LARGE BROAD WIND FIELD...STRONG WINDS OVER AREAS OF LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PATH OF IKE...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS THAT IS FORCING DESCENT
AND CREATING DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. INDEED... CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF IKE HAS BEEN RATHER THIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...THIS LATTER UPPER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD AS IKE ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...AND IN THIS CONFIGURATION WOULD PROVIDE AN UPPER PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE TO
STRENGTHENING RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL. CURRENTLY THE OUTFLOW IS VERY WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE.

IKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO GENTLY RECURVE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN 48-72 HOURS. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND IS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH LANDFALL. AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...A SLIGHT BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...BUT IS STILL JUST LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE AVERAGE 36-HOUR OFFICIAL FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 80 NMI. BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...IKE WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.


The projected path seems to be tightening on/near Galveston/Houston, but at least it doesn't look like it is going to intensify quite as much as originally expected. There's still time, though...

Thumbnail by Marylyn_TX
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darius

darius
So.App.Mtns.
United States
(Zone 5b)

September 11, 2008
9:20 PM

Post #5539813

Man, that sucker is forecast to move FAST from Saturday to Sunday!

Everything else looks about the same... I guess no news is good news,
MiniSchnuz
New Iberia, LA
(Zone 9a)

September 11, 2008
9:44 PM

Post #5539906

it's been windy windy here while mow the grass around.. still not done with cleaning from Gustav! My bro from Baytown have to leave, he left this morning and still on way to come home here to New Iberia. No school tomrrow for the students around the parishes here.

It's going to be bad one.. HUGE one!
araness
Auburn, AL
(Zone 8a)

September 11, 2008
10:07 PM

Post #5539949

Your that windy? We aren't getting anything out of the ordinary
AngelSong
Victoria, TX
(Zone 9b)

September 11, 2008
10:08 PM

Post #5539952

Bands are already in LA - but not TX. That's why it's not windy here yet. No need to fear, it will get worse before it gets better.
MiniSchnuz
New Iberia, LA
(Zone 9a)

September 11, 2008
10:26 PM

Post #5540000

yes, it's windy.. it started windy this late morning as the band come...
Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 11, 2008
10:29 PM

Post #5540008

The bands are here now, although they are widely spaced. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=lch&loop=yes
araness
Auburn, AL
(Zone 8a)

September 11, 2008
10:35 PM

Post #5540029

We have just now started to get a bit of wind, and the sky is darker than normal for this time of day. Since we live in a neighborhood full of elderly the DH will walk around the block soon to take note of who has stayed. Most have, so he'll let them know we are here if they need us. Trying to take stock of what's in the fridge and freezer so I know what to pull first to cook or eat when the power goes out. I'll put my insulin in the smaller fridge tonight before bed so it will stay cold longer.
henryr10
Cincinnati, OH
(Zone 6b)

September 12, 2008
12:39 AM

Post #5540477

So landfall ~ Midnight Friday-2 AM Saturday...
then due North and then a hook toward us here in OH...

This from NOAA

As of 09/11/2008 17:00 CDT, water levels are rising along the Gulf coast from the Florida panhandle to Texas. Water levels along the Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana coasts are elevated by 3 to 6 feet with the highest water levels being recorded at Shell Beach, LA. Water levels from Port Fourchon, LA westward to Galveston Pleasure Pier, TX are elevated by about 2 feet. Water levels eastward along the Florida coast from Pensacola to St. Petersburg are elevated 1.5 to 3.5 feet above predictions with the highest levels along the western Florida panhandle. Water levels have begun to fall at Cedar Key and St. Petersburg, FL. Barometric pressure is falling along the Louisiana and Texas coast. Winds are increasing across Mississippi and Louisiana with winds at Pilots Station East, SW Pass, LA recording frequent gusts over 50 knots.

Here's another map.

Ric


Thumbnail by henryr10
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henryr10
Cincinnati, OH
(Zone 6b)

September 12, 2008
12:58 AM

Post #5540578

Here's a link to the TX Forum's Ike Thread.

http://davesgarden.com/community/forums/t/901389/

Ric

darius

darius
So.App.Mtns.
United States
(Zone 5b)

September 12, 2008
1:09 AM

Post #5540634

One of my friends who works for Georgia Power called me about gas prices increasing dramatically after Ike. He tends to being an alarmist so I dismissed his tale of gas at $5-8 per gallon in a week. But I did google it, and these were the first 2 hits:.
Quoting:Wholesale gasoline prices top $5 a gallon
Reuters
09.11.08, 4:20 PM ET
By Janet McGurty

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wholesale gasoline prices in the U.S. Gulf topped $5 a gallon on Thursday as the region's oil refineries began closing down ahead of Hurricane Ike, adding to fears that U.S. drivers could see pump prices rise again.

Combined with the effects of Hurricane Gustav last week, more than 15.5 million barrels of refining capacity were lost and Shell Oil Co . has already said that about 10 percent of its Houston gas stations had run dry ahead of mandatory evacuations.

http://tinyurl.com/4mgls6

and this:
Quoting:"With gasoline in high demand, prices at the pump shot up about 30 percent Thursday at gas stations throughout the Texas gulf coast…"

As of Thursday afternoon, oil companies had evacuated workers from 562, or roughly 78 percent, of the 717 manned production platforms in the gulf, the U.S. Minerals Management Services said. Altogether, as much as 96 percent of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, and about 73 percent of its natural gas output, has been shut down, the agency said.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/09/11/america/12ike.7.php
henryr10
Cincinnati, OH
(Zone 6b)

September 12, 2008
1:11 AM

Post #5540638

They actually dropped 16 cents here today.
Course that was 5 hours ago...

Ric

Lilypon

Lilypon
Moose Jaw, SK
(Zone 3b)

September 12, 2008
2:18 AM

Post #5540894

I hope everyone near the coast has left...this was very recently released:

Weather service warns of 'certain death' in face of Ike


(CNN) -- Residents living in single-family homes in some parts of coastal Texas face "certain death" if they do not heed orders to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Ike's arrival, the National Weather Service said Thursday night.

The unusually strong wording came in a weather advisory regarding storm surge along the shoreline of Galveston Bay, which could see maximum water levels of 15 to 22 feet, the agency said.

"All neighborhoods ... and possibly entire coastal communities ... will be inundated during the period of peak storm tide," the advisory said. "Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single-family one- or two-story homes will face certain death."

The maximum water level forecasts in nearby areas, including the shoreline of Matagorda Bay and the Gulf-facing coastline from Sargent to High Island, ranged from 5 to 8 feet. But authorities warned that tide levels could begin rising Friday morning along the upper Texas coast and along the shorelines of the bays.

The advisory follows comes on the heels of similarly urgent messages earlier Thursday from federal authorities, who warned of a "massive storm" that could affect roughly 40 percent of the U.S. Gulf Coast.

"Do not take this storm lightly," Michael Chertoff, secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, said Thursday afternoon. "This is not a storm to gamble with. It is large; it is powerful; it carries a lot of water."

Chertoff and representatives from the Federal Emergency Management Agency said their efforts were focused on evacuations as Ike, a Category 2 storm about 700 miles across, headed toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with top sustained winds near 100 mph.

Chertoff also urged people not to succumb to "hurricane fatigue," referring to concerns that authorities were overestimating Ike's potential impact.

"Unless you're fatigued with living, I suggest you want to take seriously a storm of this size and scale," he said Thursday. "This is not a game of chicken with Mother Nature."

At 5 p.m. Thursday, the National Hurricane Center said a hurricane warning was in effect between Morgan City, Louisiana, and Baffin Bay, Texas. A warning means hurricane conditions are likely within 24 hours. VideoWatch CNN meteorologists track Hurricane Ike »

A tropical storm warning also is in effect from east of Morgan City to the Mississippi-Alabama border, including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

Texas cities on the Gulf Coast scrambled Thursday to move thousands of people away from the path of Hurricane Ike. VideoWatch nurses and patients flee Ike's path »

Roughly 3.5 million people live in the hurricane's potential impact zone, FEMA Administrator David Paulison said Thursday.

"This hurricane is Mother Nature's weapon of mass destruction," Paulison said after noting the anniversary of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

On Thursday, Ike was moving slowly through the central Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center said hurricane conditions may occur on the coast between Morgan City, Louisiana, and Baffin Bay, Texas, by late Friday, with possible landfall near Galveston Island as early as Saturday morning. Track the storm »

As of 5 p.m. ET Thursday, Ike's forecast track was through Galveston and the Houston metro area as a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph.

The hurricane center said hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 115 miles from Ike's center, and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles. VideoWatch: National Hurricane center predicts Ike's path »

At 8 p.m. ET, the center of Hurricane Ike was about 475 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, and about 370 miles east-southeast of Galveston, Texas.

Forecasters predict coastal flooding of up to 20 feet above normal tide levels and battering waves near the center of where Ike makes landfall.

In Galveston, which sits on a coastal island, Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas told the island's 60,000 people that they should leave.

Mandatory evacuations were announced for low-lying coastal areas northeast and southwest of Galveston, in Chambers, Matagorda and Brazoria counties. Elsewhere in the state, voluntary evacuations were issued in San Patricio and Victoria counties and parts of Jackson County, according to the governor's office.

Some Brazoria County residents said they didn't want to leave but realized it was in their best interest to do so.

"You don't have a choice when you have kids," Deborah Davis of Freeport told CNN affiliate KPRC-TV in Houston.

Farther inland, about 100,000 residents in low-lying areas surrounding Houston began evacuating Thursday afternoon as Ike headed for the Texas coast, officials said. VideoWatch Gov. Rick Perry warn residents of Ike's potential »

But the remaining 4 million residents were told they could stay home, even as government offices and schools prepared to close Friday in Houston in anticipation of the hurricane.

"We are only evacuating areas subject to a storm surge," said Harris County Judge Ed Emmett, the county's chief executive officer. "Yes, we know you will lose electricity. But you're not in danger of losing your life, so stay put."

Ships in port were told to leave, said Port of Houston spokeswoman Linda Whitlock. The area's two major airports, George Bush Intercontinental and William P. Hobby, also halted all commercial flights.

Forecasters said the storm stood a 41 percent change of slamming into the Texas coast late Friday or early Saturday as a Category 3 storm, with winds between 111 mph and 130 mph.

There was a 25 percent possibility Ike could be a Category 2, with wind speeds between 96 mph and 110 mph, at landfall, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said.

More than 1,300 inmates from the Texas Correctional Institutions Division's Stevenson Unit in Cuero were being evacuated to facilities in Beeville and Kenedy, Perry's office said, and 597 were transferred from the substance abuse Glossbrenner Unit in San Diego, in south Texas, to Dilley.

Evacuations appeared to have saved lives in Cuba when Ike slammed into the island. Four deaths were reported from the storm, according to the Cuban government. The Cuban Civil Defense brought buses or trucks to take people to shelters. VideoWatch Cubans wade through the streets »

The United States, which provided $100,000 in emergency aid to communist-run Cuba through private aid agencies after Hurricane Gustav hit the island August 30, said it was considering additional emergency aid for Cuba because of Ike.



This message was edited Sep 11, 2008 8:29 PM

This message was edited Sep 11, 2008 9:45 PM
Syrumani
Whitsett, NC
(Zone 8a)

September 12, 2008
3:04 AM

Post #5541046

Sorry if this was posted somewhere already. I didn't see it in the thread, and thought it was interesting . . . http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/multimedia/hurr_ike091008.html

darius

darius
So.App.Mtns.
United States
(Zone 5b)

September 12, 2008
3:22 AM

Post #5541106

Wow! That's an awesome picture! Thanks :)
Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 12, 2008
3:28 AM

Post #5541160

11pm (EST) update:

Quoting:NOW ABOUT 80 N MI. SFMR RETRIEVED WIND SPEEDS AND LOW-LAYER AVERAGES FROM DROPSONDES IN THAT MAXIMUM WIND BAND SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT. ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL REMAIN OVER WATER FOR A
LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS...PROVIDING THE CYCLONE SOME OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE SLOWLY-CHANGING STRUCTURE ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...AND NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE EXPLICITLY FORECASTS IKE TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ARE NOT EXACTLY COLD...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT IKE COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST.

...IKE REMAINS A LARGE CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AND POSES A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE HAZARD... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...BUT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.


They haven't moved the track much at all, but it would be very nice (nice being relative at this point!) if it didn't strengthen to a Cat 3!

Thumbnail by Marylyn_TX
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leeflea51
Golden, MS
(Zone 7a)

September 12, 2008
3:32 AM

Post #5541170

all in ike's path, please heed the warnings issued. i'm worried for all of you. lee
araness
Auburn, AL
(Zone 8a)

September 12, 2008
3:48 AM

Post #5541224

lol I'm with ya on that one Marylyn...We expect to lose power around afternoon tomorrow. So far not much wind, but we've battened down the hatches and are hunkered down. Off to take a nice long hot shower while I still have a hot water heater.
WeedLady
Weatherford, TX
(Zone 7b)

September 12, 2008
5:58 AM

Post #5541694

I always thought a nice cool shower was nice until the flood last summer and no hot water for eight days. Dang that water IS cold!
Hey if anyone wants or needs to come this far west we can hook your trailers up to power. We are 13 miles south of I-20 in Weatherford TX. I hope this beast will die out as I have lived on the coast and know what it can do. See ya on the sunny side and God Bless
AngelSong
Victoria, TX
(Zone 9b)

September 12, 2008
12:15 PM

Post #5542078

YuCK!

Still glad I left... mobile home... I'd rather not be found flattened underneath it.

MiniSchnuz
New Iberia, LA
(Zone 9a)

September 12, 2008
12:50 PM

Post #5542175

Woke up and brought dogs out.. windy are terrible here. I lives about 45 min to the shores... Here, it have been flooded sometimes during hurricanes.. around less 2 feet or more.

I can feel windy and gusty... not much rain. I got everything ready if power goes out!

My Bro who came in from BayTown, TX.. He's worrying about his mobile home.. He said it doesn't look good.
Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 12, 2008
12:56 PM

Post #5542190

Good morning! It's quiet here so far, but the folks on the radio say that the storm surge water is already topping the seawall in Galveston. The sea wall is 17 feet high! They are expecting the entire island to be under water.

We're ready on the outside. I still need to fill more buckets with water and set up the battery powered radio, etc on the inside. I'm trying to get all of the laundry done, too. I'd gotten behind - oops.

Quoting:COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 25 FEET...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.


It's supposed to make landfall around midnight. We should be seeing tropical storm strength winds any second now.


Thumbnail by Marylyn_TX
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Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 12, 2008
12:57 PM

Post #5542195

I'm glad your brother isn't in Baytown right now, MiniSchnuz, especially in a mobile home. It doesn't look good there at all.
Tir_Na_Nog
Houston
United States
(Zone 9b)

September 12, 2008
2:14 PM

Post #5542447

Marylyn, thank you for keeping us so informed! You sound SO well prepared, you must be native?

For those who are staying, did you board up your windows???
Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 12, 2008
2:19 PM

Post #5542469

I'm from Ohio. LOL I've been here for 11 years now. My dh is native, though. We live about 5 miles from the house he grew up in. :-)

We did not board up the windows. We thought about it and talked about it... and never did it. Probably should have... we'll stay away from the windows as much as possible tomorrow. I'm going to cover up the bedroom windows from the inside, so if they break, hopefully at least some of the shards will be kept in place instead of flying around.
Tir_Na_Nog
Houston
United States
(Zone 9b)

September 12, 2008
2:22 PM

Post #5542486

we have a colonial. the whole front is all windows! :( we didn't board either. so much running around trying to get other supplies. only saw a few handful in the neighborhood board. one house sprayed the words "TAKE A HIKE IKE" on the wood lol. :)

if only...
Tir_Na_Nog
Houston
United States
(Zone 9b)

September 12, 2008
2:32 PM

Post #5542529

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ahOZo8NH9e20&refer=us
Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 12, 2008
2:48 PM

Post #5542610

Talking about plywood reminded me of one of my favorite threads of all time: http://davesgarden.com/community/forums/t/523293/
araness
Auburn, AL
(Zone 8a)

September 12, 2008
4:04 PM

Post #5542896

Marylyn check into plylox (I think that's how they spell it) We didn't board up either, but several of the neighbors use these. Look easy to install and doesn't do damage to the brick or siding.

http://www.plylox.com/

Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 12, 2008
4:11 PM

Post #5542912

Thanks, Saint! Those look nice.
Ginger_H
Fountain, FL
(Zone 8a)

September 12, 2008
4:16 PM

Post #5542925

We have used those clips...got them at Lowes. They really are quite easy to use.

Everyone in harms way...be safe and God bless! (((HUGS)))
Tir_Na_Nog
Houston
United States
(Zone 9b)

September 12, 2008
5:22 PM

Post #5543134

Hmmm none of the links would work for me. :( DH tried to find some clips to attach wood at HD and they didn't have any. Today he thought he'd just screw the wood into the brick so went to HD to get the wood. They have plenty. But they were issuing tickets as to how many ppl could enter the store at a time :( and he didn't want to wait. We have duck tape and foam board to help keep the windows from busting into the room and will use that in some areas.

I wanted new shutters for this house. I think I might invest now in the working shutters of days gone by just in case.
Tir_Na_Nog
Houston
United States
(Zone 9b)

September 12, 2008
5:25 PM

Post #5543143

Pics of the beginning damage: http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Tropical-Storms-and-Hurricanes/ss/events/sc/091905hurricanes/s:/ap/20080723/ap_on_re_us/tropical_weather#photoViewer=/080912/480/352d12f8fd5148dbaf3db4e020e279c1

darius

darius
So.App.Mtns.
United States
(Zone 5b)

September 12, 2008
6:01 PM

Post #5543249

Boy, pics 1-6 are New Orleans' flooding yesterday already!
Tir_Na_Nog
Houston
United States
(Zone 9b)

September 12, 2008
6:07 PM

Post #5543271

I know, I was surprised by that to.
araness
Auburn, AL
(Zone 8a)

September 12, 2008
6:21 PM

Post #5543317

Just got back, we drove around town to see some of the early flooding and to check the bayou near us to see the water levels. Some slight flooding has already taken place on the low lying areas near the port but while the bayou's have risen they aren't going to flood to badly. It was good to see several gas stations etc open and tons more with generators already in place and ready to go after the storm. During Rita DH's company supplied them with 5 gallons of gas daily so that is what we ran the generator and cars on for the first three or four days until a place about 15 miles up the road opened. This time we don't have that but both cars are filled and we have about 35 gallons of extra gas.

Lilypon

Lilypon
Moose Jaw, SK
(Zone 3b)

September 12, 2008
6:23 PM

Post #5543324

For those that are in within the evacuation zones and haven't left yet I hope you are seriously reconsidering. Our news channel is showing that many people, close to the coast in Texas , are now getting flooded and are already asking to be rescued.
MySharona
Amelia Island, FL
(Zone 9a)

September 12, 2008
6:40 PM

Post #5543373

NHC Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4 shtml/121751.shtml
plantladyhou
Katy, TX
(Zone 8b)

September 12, 2008
6:41 PM

Post #5543378

Unfortunately for those late-comers, the 311 line closed at about 11:30 this morning our time so now the only recourse they have is some kind soul they could call on or 911 if they really have an emergency. The feeling was that you had had plenty of time and warning to get out so... Too many people decide to panic and get in the way of people who really need the help. All this taping and hiding behind plywood isn't doing much, "they" say. All you are doing is "hiding behind the tape and plywood." Unfortunately, again, many things that are being done have been done for ages and no one knows for sure if anything is really doing any good. It's a matter of you will never know until something goes wrong.

Ann

Lilypon

Lilypon
Moose Jaw, SK
(Zone 3b)

September 12, 2008
8:07 PM

Post #5543665

May God hold them in the palm of his hand then Ann.

O God, Master of this passing world, hear the humble voices of your children. The Sea of Galilee obeyed your order and returned to its former quietude; you are still the Master of land and sea. We live in the shadow of a danger over which we have no control. The Gulf, like a provoked and angry giant, can awake from its seeming lethargy, overstep its conventional boundaries, invade our land and spread chaos and disaster. During this hurricane season, we turn to You, O loving Father. Spare us from past tragedies whose memories are still so vivid and whose wounds seem to refuse to heal with the passing of time. O Virgin, Star of the Sea, Our Beloved Mother, we ask you to plead with your Son in our behalf, so that spared from the calamities common to this area and animated with a true spirit of gratitude, we will walk in the footsteps of your Divine Son to reach the heavenly Jerusalem where a storm-less eternity awaits us. Amen.

Originally dedicated to the victims of Hurricane Audrey in 1957.

- Fr. Al Volpe, Cameron Parish, LA

darius

darius
So.App.Mtns.
United States
(Zone 5b)

September 12, 2008
8:50 PM

Post #5543809

Just heard on the news that several people have managed to get from Galveston island (now underwater) to a bridge and are awaiting a helicopter to rescue them.

WHY don't people listen???
echoes
South of Winnipeg, MB
(Zone 3a)

September 12, 2008
9:00 PM

Post #5543834

At my house too, we are glued to the news channel. Keeping all of you, in the storm's path, in our thoughts and prayers, for your safety.
AngelSong
Victoria, TX
(Zone 9b)

September 12, 2008
9:02 PM

Post #5543846

darius - When you figure out the answer to that question, let us all know.

I also heard on the Houston news earlier today that there's a large ship stuck in the Gulf. Another genius that thought they were smarter than the storm.

I'm hanging on... watching trees & clouds. Occasional sprinkle.
Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 12, 2008
9:17 PM

Post #5543886

That ship is a freighter that actually left yesterday, trying to get to Corpus Christi. They would have made it with no problem and in plenty of time, but their engines failed, and now they are stuck. There are 22 people on board, and the Coast Guard cannot get to them. :-(

I have no excuses or kind words to say about the people who stayed in Galveston and now are risking other people's lives when they need rescued from their own folly.

The wind is picking up slightly here, and we've gotten a couple of sprinkles, but nothing serious.

Tir_Na_Nog
Houston
United States
(Zone 9b)

September 12, 2008
11:01 PM

Post #5544226

http://houston.craigslist.org/zip/838468615.html
Marylyn_TX
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 12, 2008
11:04 PM

Post #5544230

LOL
MiniSchnuz
New Iberia, LA
(Zone 9a)

September 12, 2008
11:10 PM

Post #5544244

It's 46 mph windy righ tnow here.. I am still in our home mh... I went down to get me a gallon of strawberry dq... i can feel my truck being shaky by the windy/gusty. LOL

we the family who stay in each their houses. we each call each other to check on everybody to see if we alright... or warning each other.. ... We are preparing if the power goes out bec it's start dim often... off and on..

I am making Speedy tuna cassorle!
LindaTX8
NE Medina Co., TX
(Zone 8a)

September 12, 2008
11:11 PM

Post #5544247

I hope the Lord will help those still on Galveston, because I don't think anyone on earth will be able to help them tonight. I remember the stories told by the few that survived the big hurricane early in the century. It must have been horrific!
cando1
Ozone, AR
(Zone 6a)

September 13, 2008
12:06 AM

Post #5544424

Hi, I've been lurking but today found myself under a Tropical Storm Watch. I mean like I live in the middle of Arkansas, on a mountain. We simply do not have Tropical Storms.
My SIL went to get some grocerys and gas abt 3:00 PM in a nearby town and could'nt even get into the parking lot the lines were so long.
Living isolated in a National Forest,i stay prepared. so have plenty of grocerys,candles,oillamps,generator and medical supplys. won't be flooded out but may go through withdrawel symptoms from computer fix. LOL

Praying for everyones safety and lack of surprises.
Vickie

darius

darius
So.App.Mtns.
United States
(Zone 5b)

September 13, 2008
12:12 AM

Post #5544488

Stay safe, Vickie! Even Dallas is under a Tropical Storm Watch... Dallas!!
podster
Deep East Texas, TX
(Zone 8a)

September 13, 2008
12:17 AM

Post #5544505

Vickie ~ we saw many evacuees heading your way. I was amazed at how far north they were intending to travel. The warnings and evacuation make us all feel we need to be better prepared I am afraid. We have resisted the grocery store and gas pumps so those away from home will hopefully find what they need.

MiniSchnuz ~ your gallon of strawberry dq? You have to eat it quick if the lights go out! 8 )

The weather just said we are one mph away from a category 3?
Dea
Frederick, MD
(Zone 6a)

September 13, 2008
12:41 AM

Post #5544581

very ugly - saying prayers for all

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/current

henryr10
Cincinnati, OH
(Zone 6b)

September 13, 2008
12:42 AM

Post #5544584

Vickie we were just joking on Labor Day w/ our cousins in Bentonville and Sulfer Springs about the Hurricanes.
Not a Joke any more.
Good news though is it 'should' be drastically reduced in strength to a TS probably a TD by the time it hits you.
Just a heavy storm when we catch it.

I was just going back over the Katrina Landfall Threads...
May the Luck of 'Hurricane Hambone' be w/ you ALL!

Ric
henryr10
Cincinnati, OH
(Zone 6b)

September 13, 2008
12:45 AM

Post #5544599

LOL!
I just got to the part where Crude Oil prices 'Surged' to 70 dollars a barrel because of Katrina...

I love that Stormpulse Map... wish they would update it though...

Ric
Dea
Frederick, MD
(Zone 6a)

September 13, 2008
12:54 AM

Post #5544628

Me too Ric - hopefully soon!

notmartha
Bay City, MI
(Zone 6a)

September 13, 2008
12:58 AM

Post #5544640

My nephew is a EMT in TNN and has been sent to TX to help out-his partner and he drove their ambulance there and are waiting to see what happens. I also have another nephew that just move to TX and im not sure where he is.
Im praying for everyone ...

the gas stations are all lined up around here and one station was OUT of gas already
i heard one man say it was already 5.00gallon in Saginaw Mich

This message was edited Sep 12, 2008 9:00 PM

darius

darius
So.App.Mtns.
United States
(Zone 5b)

September 13, 2008
1:09 AM

Post #5544686

I thought I posted this here already but I don't see it. Gas locally is being limited to 10 gallons most places and a few stations have run out already. I don't know what prices are tonight here, but from morning to noon, they made a huge jump. My friend in the NC mountains reports gas was over $5.00 this afternoon and expected to increase when they get refilled. (They are out of gas at the stations in his small town.)

It's gonna be a long night... storm surge and high tide yet to come...
Dea
Frederick, MD
(Zone 6a)

September 13, 2008
1:11 AM

Post #5544695

It's updated finally: http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/current


henryr10
Cincinnati, OH
(Zone 6b)

September 13, 2008
1:15 AM

Post #5544717

It's right at 4 here up from $3.69 this morning.
I have 1/2 a tank which will take me into Friday next... I'd say by Monday/Tuesday it will fall fast.

Hmmmm Ike won't hit for hours... any gas production lost won't show up for weeks...
Gotta rape them prices while you can I guess...

Farmers should do this...
My cows might get sick next week so I'm raising milk prices today!

Ric

darius

darius
So.App.Mtns.
United States
(Zone 5b)

September 13, 2008
1:21 AM

Post #5544738

LOL Ric!

Great map, Dea. Thanks!
henryr10
Cincinnati, OH
(Zone 6b)

September 13, 2008
1:45 AM

Post #5544835

Thanks Dea!

The Weather Idiots are all over The Weatherchannel now.
It seems one old man is staying on the flooded island... everyone else is off.
This is a slowwwww moving storm... gonna be a long night!

Be Safe!
Ric
Tir_Na_Nog
Houston
United States
(Zone 9b)

September 13, 2008
1:55 AM

Post #5544869

I guess we have some blessings to count. We are IN Houston and we topped off gas at $3.43 this afternoon. Yesterday it was $3.28 but only at Walmart, as high as $3.59 at Shell.
AngelSong
Victoria, TX
(Zone 9b)

September 13, 2008
2:17 AM

Post #5544961

No reason to hike fuel - Oil prices dropped today...

stupid price wars.

Winds have kicked up where I've sheltered to. It's gonna get worse before it gets better.

MiniSchnuz
New Iberia, LA
(Zone 9a)

September 13, 2008
2:48 AM

Post #5545057

So far we still have the power here! Drinking my strawberry daq. Chat with friends on cam.. keep each other in touch.
It's so windy and windy/gusty... so far no damage. The winds come west since yesterday morning.. No flood yet.. The ditch are raising...
podster
Deep East Texas, TX
(Zone 8a)

September 13, 2008
2:52 AM

Post #5545069

Hmmm sorry thought that was strawberry ice cream LOL Tells you where my thoughts are... glad there is no damage or flooding yet for you.

darius

darius
So.App.Mtns.
United States
(Zone 5b)

September 13, 2008
3:11 AM

Post #5545167

From the 11PM update:
Quoting:IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. STRONGER WINDS... AS MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...COULD OCCUR ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.


So, intensity has increased, the minimum pressure has dropped and Gulf water levels have risen. Add the expected storm surge at landfall and it becomes really dangerous. Praying for everyone in Ike's path... even the folks who refused to evacuate when they could.


This message was edited Sep 13, 2008 2:17 AM
henryr10
Cincinnati, OH
(Zone 6b)

September 13, 2008
3:24 AM

Post #5545214

I'd say pretty much anything East of Houston is now under the Heavy Gun.
Tornados have been popping all over LA ...

Galveston has been under some serious rain for some time now...
then the clear skies aren't far off, but the building storm surge will be taking over...

As slow as this is moving the Bay has to be taking quite a hit...

Ric
Syrumani
Whitsett, NC
(Zone 8a)

September 13, 2008
3:47 AM

Post #5545348

Here is a link to some pix on the local news site . . . hope it works!

http://www.mysanantonio.com/#


Ok, it looks like you need to actually click on the middle pic of the Photos section, just on the right of the page in the right hand column . . . It shows "latest info", "videos", and then "photos".

Photo #2 did it for me!

This message was edited Sep 12, 2008 10:51 PM
rntx22
Houston, TX
(Zone 9a)

September 13, 2008
9:09 AM

Post #5545783

You have to watch the gas stations - they will try to cheat you. I was in Louisianna when Gustave came, and of course all the gas stations had their pumps covered because they were out of gas. There were a few that were open but only had supreme. Well, we decided to try the regular even though it was covered, and it pumped gas just fine! Several of my family members also came to this station after we told them about it and they were also able to get regular gas. So just be smart and don't trust those gas - some of them are trying to screw you!!

I already posted this on the Texas forum, but here is my current whereabouts in case anyone is keeping a log.

I have been in Montana vacationing the last week, so was unable to prepare for the storm. All my potted plants, feeders, lawn chairs, etc (all the stuff you are supposed to take in!) are still outside - no telling what will be left when we return. The zip code I use on DG is for my moms house in Deer Park, but I actually live a few minutes down the street from where one of the weather channel guys is broadcasting (I live off Nasa rd 1 right off Nassau bay/Clear Lake). It's not looking good there - he has clocked wind gusts over 100 mph from his location. My poor cat!!

As you can see, I am not getting any rest tonight (it is almost 4 am now). The hospital I work at downtown is on lockdown, and they are having to move people in to the halls away from windows. It is kind of tough for my unit (ICU - which has lots of big windows and is on the 4th floor) to move anyone since they are on ventillators and stuff. Glad I am not there!!! Will keep everyone posted. Hope everyone who stayed behind is doing ok
henryr10
Cincinnati, OH
(Zone 6b)

September 13, 2008
11:47 AM

Post #5545967

rntx GLAD you're OK!

At this point according to TWC Houston area has 3 million homes w/o power.
West LA and TX are still being T-Stormed and Tornado Warnings have just expired in many counties there.
Galveston, Texas City, Baytown were Ground Zero.
Cleaveland TX is currently in the Eye.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=25.60190&lon=-85.82520&zoom=6&type=hyb&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&hur.opa=70&hur.img=0&fire=0&tor=0

Many DG'ers are reporting in over here.

http://davesgarden.com/community/forums/t/901389/#new

Still a Cat 2... still moving VERY slowly...

Ric

stephanietx

stephanietx
Fort Worth, TX
(Zone 8a)

September 13, 2008
11:47 AM

Post #5545968

Ike rolled on shore this morning at 2:10AM as a cat. 2 hurricane with winds of 110 mph. It made landfall on Galveston Island. Something like 20,000 people (mumble, mumble...) ignored the mandatory evacuation. The local 911 received over 200 calls for help, but due to the violent nature of the storm, the rains, and high waters, emergency personnel were unable to reach them. A couple of buildings had to burn because fire crews couldn't get to them due to high water.

Ike then set his sights on the city of Houston. Thankfully, he didn't go straight up the Houston Ship Channel, so he missed a direct hit on the refineries and petrochemical plants. He went slightly east and directly over downtown Houston. Lots and lots of damage, as one might imagine. 4.5 MILLION people are without power. He's making a more northeasterly track up through Texas than originally predicted, then will head over to Arkansas.

Stephanie
henryr10
Cincinnati, OH
(Zone 6b)

September 13, 2008
11:49 AM

Post #5545972

Forgot to add... check NEXRAD Radar and Tornados when you are on Wunderland.com

Be SAFE!
Ric
henryr10
Cincinnati, OH
(Zone 6b)

September 13, 2008
11:52 AM

Post #5545979

I'll be on the phone w/ my AR relatives here in a few hours.
They are in the OK, MO, AR corner and it appears they are out of the danger zone.
That should be an interesting Conversation! lol!

Ric
henryr10
Cincinnati, OH
(Zone 6b)

September 13, 2008
2:53 PM

Post #5546532

I just talked to Marylyn_TX a few minutes ago.
She's in Houston.
She was one of my contacts.
Limbs down, Power out but otherwise OK!

Ric

trackinsand

trackinsand
mid central, FL
(Zone 9a)

September 13, 2008
3:21 PM

Post #5546651

just got word from vossner (richmond/houston area). she is ok.
Floridian
Lutz, FL
(Zone 9b)


September 13, 2008
3:24 PM

Post #5546659

We've been watching the storm all morning, Thoughts and prayers for all who are hunkered down. Been there, done that but got lucky each time.

Maybe someone should start a contact thread and y'all can list those you're in contact with. That would give a central spot for everyone to check for people

darius

darius
So.App.Mtns.
United States
(Zone 5b)

September 13, 2008
3:27 PM

Post #5546675

Good idea, Stacey. Ric started a check-in list on the Texas Forum but many of us outside of TX might never see it. I'll start one here... be back in a minute...

darius

darius
So.App.Mtns.
United States
(Zone 5b)

September 13, 2008
3:30 PM

Post #5546690

Okay... here's the Ike check-in thread
http://davesgarden.com/community/forums/t/902585/

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